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The Best Basketball Player Born in Each US State

Over 4000 NBA players were born in the United States, none are from Vermont. Let's look at the others.
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*Edit/extra info at the bottom*
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Alabama (87 players)
All-Time: Charles Barkley (Leeds) - 22.1/11.7/3.9 (1984-2000) - The Round Mound of Rebound, the 1992-93 MVP, NBA analyst Charles Barkley finished his illustrious career as an 11 time All Star and currently is 6th in all time offensive rebounds, 20th in total rebounds, and 31st in points.
Active: DeMarcus Cousins (Mobile) - 21.0/10.8/3.2 (2011- ) - DeMarcus Cousins was one of the best offensive big men in the league during his prime. Unfortunately, due to multiple serious injuries has struggled to get back on the court the past few years but is currently playing for the Houston Rockets.
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Alaska (1 player)
Only: Mario Chalmers (Anchorage) - 8.9/2.5/3.7 (2008-2018) - Famously a member of the Big 4 in Miami, Mario Chalmers won two championships starting for the Heat. He is still playing pro basketball in Greece.
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Arizona (17 players)
All-Time: Sean Elliot (Tucson) - 14.2/4.3/2.6 (1990-2001) - Two-time All-Star for the Spurs, Sean Elliot's number 32 jersey was retired in 2005. After his first all-star season he was traded by the Spurs for Dennis Rodman, averaged 12 points, and traded back the next season where he became an all-star again the season afterwards.
Active: Marvin Bagley III (Tempe) -14.6/7.6/1.0 (2018- ) - Most famous for being drafted before a superstar and getting injured. I swear he's pretty good, I think.
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Arkansas (54 players)
All-Time: Scottie Pippen (Hamburg) - 16.1/6.4/5.2 (1988-2004) - The ultimate Robin, one of the best perimeter defenders ever, and a 6-time champion Scottie Pippen remains as the most underrated player of all time, well maybe not anymore.
Active: Mike Conley (Fayetteville) -14.9/3.0/5.7 (2008- ) - One of the most common answers to "Who is the best player to never be an All-Star?" Mike Conley was the starting point guard for the Grit and Grind Grizzlies and currently seems to be having another comeback season on the Utah Jazz.
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California (416 players)
All-Time and Active: Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles) - 18.8/6.4/2.8 (2012- ) - The most populous state in the nation guarantees a tough choice and disagreement, but I'm going with Kawhi Leonard. The two-time Finals MVP and two-time DPOY was one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history during defensive prime and is one the best players in the league today.
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Colorado (19 players)
All-Time: Chauncey Billups (Denver) - 15.2/2.9/5.4 (1998-2014) - One of the most famous "late-bloomers" in the NBA, the two-way guard is most famous for his 2004 Finals MVP. Billups made five all-star teams in a row after becoming a champion and had his number 1 jersey retired by the Detroit Pistons.
Active: Derrick White (Parker) - 9.7/3.2/3.4 (2018- ) - With his current injury, there are technically no actively playing NBA players from Colorado. Anyways, White is one the Spurs collection of up-and-coming young guards.
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Connecticut (37 players)
All-Time: Calvin Murphy (Norwalk) - 17.9/2.1/4.4 (1971-1983) - The shortest Hall of Famer (5'9) and world-class baton twirler, Calvin Murphy was only a one time all-star but did lead the Rockets in all-time scoring before Olajuwon.
Active: Kris Dunn (New London) - 8.3/3.3/4.2 (2017- ) - A defensive specialist who was recently signed by the Atlanta Hawks, Dunn is currently out for ankle surgery but it seems only a matter of time (or rather minutes) before he makes an all-defense team.
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Delaware (9 players)
All-Time: Walt Hazzard/Mahdi Abdul-Rahman (Wilmington) - 12.6/3.0/4.9 (1965-1974) - Hazzard was a one time all-star in his career, notably averaging 24 points a game on the first team of the Seattle Supersonics.
Active: Donte DiVincenzo (Newark) - 10.1/3.9/2.5 (2018- ) - The best young player in Milwaukee, the Big Ragu looks to have, once again, sacrificed 2p% for 3p% this season after a good defensive season last year.
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District of Columbia (73 players)
All-Time and Active: Kevin Durant - 27.1/7.1/4.1 (2008- ) - Another tough decision but I went with my gut/recency bias and chose Kevin Durant. 2013-14 MVP, 2x Finals MVP, 4x Scoring Champion, Durant is simply one the best scorers to ever play in the NBA. He currently looks to be starting another amazing season after missing a year with a torn achilles.
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Florida (118 players)
All-Time: David Robinson (Key West) - 21.1/10.6/2.5 (1989-2003) - Coming out the gates with All-NBA and All-Defense selections as a rookie, Robinson was instantly one of the best in the NBA. The Admiral is also part of an exclusive club of players who won both an MVP and DPOY. He also also he has a better moustache than Ewing and Olajuwon.
Active: Trevor Ariza (Miami) - 10.5/4.8/2.2 (2005- ) - The most traded player in NBA history Trevor Ariza will most likely be remembered for his time as the starting small forward on the 65-17 Houston Rockets team and as being one the best 3&D players in the league during his prime.
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Georgia (133 players)
All-Time and Active: Dwight Howard (Atlanta) - 16.6/12.2/1.4 (2004- ) - Superman Dwight Howard was undoubtedly the best center in the league during his prime. The 3x DPOY lead the Orlando Magic to their 2nd Finals Appearance in 2009 and then went to, like, a lot of different teams.
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Hawaii (2 players)
All-Time: Cedric Ceballos (Maui) - 14.3/5.3/1.2 (1990-2001) - Ceballos was a one time all-star for the Lakers in the mid-nineties where he had back to back 21 points per game seasons. He appeared with Shawn Marion on the Amazing Race in 2018 where they were eliminated 4th.
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Idaho (5 players)
All-Time: Luke Ridnour (Coeur d'Alene) - 9.3/2.3/4.5 (2003-2015) - Luke Ridnour was a solid point guard for 12 years. The year before he retired, he was traded four times in six days. (Magic > Grizzlies > Hornets > Thunder >Raptors > Waived)
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Illinois (288 players)
All-Time: Dwyane Wade (Chicago) - 22.0/4.7/5.4 (2003-2019) - Flash was a thirteen time All-Star and had eight All-NBA selections. Wade is most remembered for his time has a member of the big three in Miami, but his all-time finals performance in 2006 is what puts him in the greatest shooting guard conversation.
Active: Anthony Davis (Chicago) - 21.3/9.0/3.4 (2012- ) - Anthony Davis is coming off his first championship win and is the best center in the league despite playing power forward. Consistently one of the best players on both ends of the floor, Davis is a leading candidate for Defensive Player of Year, again.
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Indiana (155 players)
All-Time: Larry Bird (West Baden) - 24.3/10.0/6.3 (1979-1992) - Easily one of the greatest of all time. Larry Bird was consistently amazing throughout his unfortunately brief prime. One of three people to win three MVP awards in a row and the best player on the of the greatest teams of all-time in the 1986 Celtics. He the only person in the NBA to win MVP, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year.
Active: Gordon Hayward (Indianapolis) - 15.4/4.4/3.5 (2010- ) - After becoming an all-star for Utah, Gordon Hayward signed a massive deal with Boston in free agency where he snapped his leg 5 minutes into his first game in green. After a few more freak injuries, Hayward looks to be back to all-star form in Charlotte.
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Iowa (23 players)
All-Time and Active: Harrison Barnes (Ames) - 13.7/4.9/1.7 (2012- ) - The original tall guy on Golden State's death lineup, Barnes would win a championship with the Warriors in 2015 and started on the 73-9 team. He currently plays forward for the Sacramento Kings. Last season Barnes was more efficient in the post than Davis and Towns.
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Kansas (36 players)
All-Time: Alvan Adams (Lawrence) - 14.1/7.0/4.1 (1975-1988) - The Oklahoma Kid, Alvan Adams, became an all-star and lead the Suns to the finals in his rookie year. He spent his entire career in Phoenix and still works there as the Sun's VP for Facility Management.
Active: Willie Cauley-Stein (Spearville) - 9.5/6.3/1.6 (2015- ) - Currently the third most famous center for the Dallas Mavericks. In 2015 Willie added Stein to his last name after his mother and made his nickname, Trill, his new middle name.
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Kentucky (113 players)
All-Time: Wes Unseld (Louisville) - 10.8/14.0/3.9 (1968-1981) - Wes Unseld won both MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same year, one of two people to do so. The Big U stayed with the Bullets for his entire career and last worked as an assistant coach, head coach, vice president, and general manager for the team.
Active: Rajon Rondo (Louisville) - 10.2/4.7/8.2 (2006- ). Rondo was very suddenly pushed into the spotlight as the 24-58 team he first played for became the championship favorite over one offseason. Rondo would later go on to win two championships, have four All-Star and All-Defense appearances, and lead the league in assists per game three times.
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Louisiana (121 players)
All-Time: Bill Russell (Monroe) - 15.1/22.5/4.3 (1956-1969) - He won ELEVEN championships what do you want.
Active: Paul Millsap (Monroe) - 13.9/7.3/2.2 (2006- ) - Paul Millsap became a four-time all-star after signing with the Atlanta Hawks and was an important member for the 60-win team in 2015. Underrated in the all-time second round picks discussion.
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Maine (2 players)
All-Time and Active: Duncan Robinson (York) - 14.8/3.9/1.7 (2018- ) - One of the Miami Heat's breakout undrafted players last year. Duncan Robinson looks to be on track to becoming one of the best three-point specialists in the NBA, shooting 44% last season. He also shot 65% on 2 pointers.
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Maryland (74 players)
All-Time: Sam Cassell (Baltimore) - 15.7/3.2/6.0 (1993-2008) - Sam Cassell was another late bloomer winning his first All-Star appearance and All-NBA selection in 2004 at age 34. The three-time champion came into the league with the 1994 Houston Rockets and retired with the 2008 Boston Celtics.
Active: Victor Oladipo (Silver Spring) - 17.4/4.6/3.9 (2013- ) - Oladipo broke out in the 2017-18 season winning Most Improved Player along with his first All-Star, All-Defense, and All-NBA selections. Since that season he has been dealing with injuries but has very recently been traded to the Houston Rockets.
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Massachusetts (45 players)
All-Time: Bill Laimbeer (Boston) - 12.9/9.7/2.0 (1980-1993) - In the eighties Laimbeer was one of the most infamous players in the league as he and the Bad Boy Pistons won two championships. An early stretch 5, in 1989-1990 he shot 36% from 3 on a team high two attempts a game. The three-time all-star has also won three WNBA championships and two WNBA Coach of the Year Awards.
Active: Michael Carter-Williams (Hamilton) - 10.3/4.4/4.3 (2013- ) - His NBA debut was 22 points, 7 rebounds, 12 assists, and 9 steals. Unfortunately, MCW has never quite reached that level of hype or performance again.
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Michigan (158 players)
All-Time: Magic Johnson (Lansing) - 19.5/7.2/11.2 (1979-1991 1996) - The greatest point guard of all time despite a tragically shortened career. Awards: 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, 3x MVP, 5x Champion, 3x FMVP. Lead the league in assists four times and steals twice. P4P best smile.
Active: Draymond Green (Saginaw) - 8.9/6.9/5.0 (2012- ) - One of the most versatile defenders ever, one of the best passing big men ever, one of the shortest big men ever. Green was one of the key pieces of the Warriors dynasty that won three championships in five consecutive finals appearances. In that time, he won DPOY and made 3 All-Star teams, 2 All-NBA teams, and 5 All-Defensive teams.
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Minnesota (60 players)
All-Time: Kevin McHale (Hibbing) - 17.9/7.3/1.7 (1980-93) - McHale started his career as one the best sixth men of all time before taking his spot in the starting lineup and developed into one of the best power forwards of all-time. He won three championships and had seven all-star selections as a career Celtic.
Active: Tyus Jones (Burnsville) - 5.7/1.6/3.6 (2015- ) - A solid two-way point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies, Tyus Jones holds the record for the highest assist to turnover ratio in a season from his 2018-19 season with 6.9:1.
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Mississippi (92 players)
All-Time: Spencer Haywood (Silver City) - 20.3/10.3/1.8 (1969-1970 (ABA) 1971-1980 1981-1983) - Haywood won ABA MVP and ROY in 1970 averaging 30 points and 19.5 rebounds, leading the league in both categories. In the NBA he was a five All-Star and made the All-NBA team four times.
Active: Rodney Hood (Meridian) - 12.1/2.8/1.9 (2014- ) - Rodney Hood has been a solid offensive 2/3 since coming into the league. He is coming back from an achilles tear suffered last season.
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Missouri (69 players)
All-Time and Active: Jayson Tatum (St Louis) - 17.7/6.0/2.3 (2017- ) - Too early? Jayson Tatum looks to be a superstar two-way forward for the Boston Celtics, making an All-NBA team in his third season as well as leading the team to the ECF. Tatum finished second in all-time rookie playoff points with 351, only a single point behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
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Montana (11 players)
All-Time: Mike Lewis (Missoula) - 12.1/11.9/3.0 (1968-1974) - Drafted by the Celtics but only ever played in the ABA, his career was cut short by an achilles injury. His basketball reference page says he was a two-time all-star but only shows one star.
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Nebraska (14 players)
All-Time: Bob Boozer (Omaha) - 14.8/8.1/1.4 (1960-1971) - One time all-star for the Bulls 1967-68 and went out with a championship with the Bucks. Not related to Carlos.
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Nevada (12 Players)
All-Time: Ricky Davis (Las Vegas) - 13.5/3.5/3.3 (1999-2010) - Nicknamed Wrong Rim Ricky, he most notably averaged 20 points a game on the Cavs team that drafted Lebron.
Active: Troy Brown Jr (Las Vegas) - 7.6/4.3/2.1 (2018- ) - Young small forward for the Wizards, showed improvement in his sophomore season but he seen reduced minutes in his third season so far.
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New Hampshire (1 player)
Only: Matt Bonner (Concord) - 5.8/3.0/0.7 (2004- 2016) - Longtime backup big man for the Spurs where he won two championships. Assumed to still be searching for the Hoagie Grail.
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New Jersey (143 players)
All-Time: Shaquille O'Neal (Newark) - 23.7/10.9/2.5 (1992-2011) - THE MOST DOMINANT BIG MAN IN NBA HISTORY. Four rings, fifteen time All-Star, fourteen time All-NBA, 2000 MVP. Currently hanging out with Tony the Tiger.
Active: Karl-Anthony Towns (Edison) - 22.7/11.8/2.8 (2015- ) - Had to choose between him and Bam, so not sure about this one. Either way, KAT is going to be best shooting big man of all time. Currently dealing with health issues, hopefully he comes back strong.
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New Mexico (7 players)
All-Time: Bill Bridges (Hobbs) - 11.9/11.9/2.8 (1963-1975) - Was a three time All-Star, two time All-Defense, and won a championship in 1975 with the Warriors. Not a lot of information about the guy unfortunately.
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New York (411 players)
All-Time: Michael Jordan (Brooklyn) - 30.1/6.2/5.3 (1984-1993 1995-1998 2001-2003) - Its between him and Abdul-Jabbar. The most common GOAT answer. Jordan led the league in scoring ten times, five MVPs, six championships. Most important person in basketball history other than maybe Naismith and Stern.
Active: Carmelo Anthony (Brooklyn) - 23.4/6.5/2.9 (2003- ) - Ten time All-Star, six time All-NBA, lead the league in scoring in 2012-13, one of the faces of 21st century basketball. Only player to win every rookie of the month award and not win rookie of the year. Currently coming off the bench for Portland.
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North Carolina (139 players)
All-Time and Active: Chris Paul (Winston-Salem) - 18.4/4.5/9.5 (2005- ) - One of the greatest point guards ever. Kinda bored of listing awards, he has simply been great and an absolute game-changer since day one. Will finish top 5 in assists and steals.
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North Dakota (6 players)
All-Time and Active: Doug McDermott (Grand Forks) - 8.4/2.2/0.9 (2014- ) - Dougie McBuckets has been an automatic three-point shooter since his sophomore season and judging by Korver's and Kerr's careers, he has quite a few years to go.
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Ohio (195 players)
All-Time and Active: Lebron James (Akron) - 27.0/7.4/7.4 (2003- ) - The other GOAT guy. Still arguably the best player in the NBA at 36. You've heard it all. Ten finals appearances, four rings, 16 time All-Star and All-NBA (most first team selections too), four-time MVP. Also, shoutout to Steph Curry, best shooter ever.
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Oklahoma (48 players)
All-Time and Active: Blake Griffin (Oklahoma City) - 21.5/8.8/4.4 (2010- ) - One of the best highlight reels in the sport. Started out as a super explosive rookie all-star and later transitioned into becoming one of the most well-rounded players in the league. Had injury problems throughout his career and it seems they finally took him down a peg these past couple of seasons.
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Oregon (32 players)
All-Time: A.C. Green (Portland) - 9.6/7.4/1.1 (1985-2001) - The power forward for late period Showtime. Won three championships as a Laker, one time All-Star and All-Defense. Played 1192 consecutive games and only missed 3 total games in his career.
Active: Domantas Sabonis (Portland) - 12.5/8.2/2.7 (2016- ) - Carrying on the Sabonis legacy by becoming one the best big men in league, combining passing and post play while also adding some three-point attempts recently. Already an all-star in fourth season and has a bright future.
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Pennsylvania (239 players)
All-Time: Wilt Chamberlain (Philadelphia) - 30.1/22.9/4.4 (1959-1973) - Wilt has lots of awards and most of the NBA records. Kobe is also one the greatest of all time with five championships and is arguably the best scorer of the 21st century but isn't eligible for the list.
Active: Kyle Lowry (Philadelphia) - 14.8/4.3/6.2 (2006- ) - One of the best two-way point guards of this decade. Six time all-star and a championship along with one of the cutest bromances. Literally drew 2 charges in the last minute of the all-star game how do you not love this guy.
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Rhode Island (10 players)
All-Time: Marvin Barnes (Providence) - 16.0/9.1/2.1 (1974-1976 (ABA) 1976-1980) - ABA rookie of year and two time all-star. There is a story that when a flight was scheduled to arrive before it departure time (going from eastern time to central time), he refused to board due to this and rented a car instead stating "I ain't getting in no damn time machine."
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South Carolina (46 players)
All-Time: Kevin Garnett (Greenville) - 17.8/10.0/3.7 (1995-2016) - Arguably the best American-born power forward. Another player to win both DPOY and MVP in his career, Garnett also was a 15x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, and 12x All-Defense. The best player in Timberwolves history and the first in Minnesota's lineage of star big men named K.
Active: Khris Middleton (Charleston) - 16.5/4.7/5.4 (2012- ) - Middleton is a star 2/3 for the Milwaukee Bucks. Coming off his second all-star appearance, the two-way wing is still seeking to become the ninth member of the 50/40/90 club in the NBA.
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South Dakota (5 players)
All-Time: Mike Miller (Mitchell) - 10.6/4.2/2.6 (2000-2017) - Long-time 3pt specialist, Mike Miller, is notable for having won Rookie of The Year in 2000; considered one of the weakest draft classes of the modern era. Miller also won Sixth Man of the Year in 2005-06 and two championships with the Heatles. He once owned a crab-eating macaque.
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Tennessee (95 players)
All-Time: Oscar Robertson (Charlotte) - 25.7/7.5/9.5 (1960-1974) - Oscar Robertson is the all-time leader in triple-doubles as well as the first person to average a triple double for a season. An all-time great guard, Robertson struggled to carry the Cincinnati Royals past the first round but was later able to win a championship with the Bucks in 1971.
Active: Lou Williams (Memphis) - 14.4/2.3/3.4 (2005- ) - The record-tying three-time Sixth Man of the Year is one of the best scorers off the bench in NBA history. A late bloomer, Williams had arguably his best seasons in his early thirties but is currently facing reduced minutes on the LA Clippers this season.
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Texas (193 players)
All-Time: Chris Bosh (Dallas) - 19.2/8.5/2.0 (2003-2016) - The tale of a career we saw the almost the entire prime of, but not quite enough of to leave no questions about the extent of his legacy. Chris Bosh was a two-time champion and eleven time All-Star but only ever made one All-NBA team.
Active: LaMarcus Aldridge (Dallas) - 19.5/8.3/2.0 (2006- ) - The hall of very good guy. One of the best big men in the league for almost a decade straight for Portland and San Antonio. Aldridge was the star acquisition that catapulted the 2015-16 Spurs to 67 wins and the unfortunate distinction of one the best teams to never win a championship.
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Utah (26 players)
All-Time: Tom Chambers (Ogden) - 18.1/6.1/2.1 (1981-1995 1997) - Tom Chambers was a four time All-Star and had two All-NBA selections. Famously the first ever unrestricted free agent, he joined the Phoenix Suns, the first team to send him an offer.
Active: John Collins (Layton) - 16.2/8.8/1.6 (2017- ) - John Collins is a crazy efficient 23 year old power forward coming off two 20/10 seasons. Despite his potential, he seems having a down year on a good then not so good Atlanta Hawks team.
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Vermont (0 players)
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Virginia (82 players)
All-Time: Moses Malone (Petersburg) - 20.3/12.3/1.3 (1974-1976 (ABA) 1976-1994) - The best undrafted player in NBA history and will probably remain so for a very long time. Over his career he was a three-time MVP, one-time champion, and had thirteen all-star appearances. In his rookie year in the NBA he played six minutes in Buffalo before being traded for two first round picks, preventing a trio of McAdoo, Malone, and Dantley.
Active: Jeremy Lamb (Henrico) - 10.5/3.7/1.6 (2012- ) - Lamb had a bit of a breakout year in Charlotte during the 2018-19 season when he started most of the games he played for the first time in his career. Currently a member of the Indiana Pacers, Lamb is recovering from a major knee injury sustained last year.
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Washington (64 players)
All-Time: John Stockton (Spokane)- 13.5/2.7/10.5 (1984-2003) - John Stockton is the all-time leader in assists and steal and look to remain so for a very long time as well. His almost insurmountable lead on the assist record comes from him leading the league in total assists nine times in a row, as well as only missing 14 games out of a possible 1518.
Active: Zach LaVine (Renton) - 18.0/3.7/3.7 (2014- ) - LaVine has been on the cusp of an all-star appearance these past couple years and looks to be in the hunt again this year as he continues to be a versatile offensive wing. Someone sign Isaiah Thomas.
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West Virginia (28 players)
All-Time: Jerry West (Chelyan) - 27.0/5.8/6.7 (1960-1974) - The Logo himself, Jerry West was an All-Star every season of his 14-year career along with 12 All-NBA selections. While West was one of the faces of the 1960s, he didn't win a championship until 1972, thanks bill. West went on to have a successful career as an executive, currently working for the LA Clippers.
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Wisconsin (65 Players)
All-Time: Latrell Sprewell (Milwaukee) - 18.3/4.1/4.0 (1992-2005) - Sprewell was a four time All-Star and made the first team All-NBA and second team All-Defense in his second season. In 1997 was suspended for the 82 games, later shortened to 68 games, good for second longest in NBA history.
Active: Tyler Herro (Milwaukee) - 14.1/4.5/2.4 (2019- ) - A young prospect for the Miami Heat and although he had a good rookie year (a good start to his second season), he has so far been defined by his 37 point performance in the ECF last season.
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Wyoming (7 players)
All-Time and Active: James Johnson (Cheyenne) - 8.0/3.6/2.1 (2009- ) - Johnson is a versatile journeyman big man who currently plays for the Dallas Mavericks after being traded three times in 2020. Has a 20-0 record in kickboxing.
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So that's my list, if you think I should add anything, clean up a paragraph, or spot some mistakes let me know.
Sourced from basketball reference, nba.com, and wikipedia
*****
EDIT: Should've specified a few things first:
  1. "Active" is meant to be the active player with the best overall career rather than the best this season
  2. I went with where someone was born based off their wikipedia and basketball reference page. I ignored where people spent most of their childhood/lives for the sake of simplicity on my part.
  3. FAQ: Bill Russell was born in Louisiana, Jordan was born in NY, Kevin Love was born in California, Kyrie Irving was born in Australia, and Carlos Boozer was born in Germany. Kevin Durant was born in a DC hospital and thus on the pages I checked he is listed as from DC, oh also DC isn't in Maryland or Virginia, its different.
  4. I forgot about Jimmy Butler in Texas (;_;)
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US Virgin Islands (3 players)
All-Time: Tim Duncan - 19.0/10.8/3.0 (1997-2016) - Tim Duncan , much like Spurs teammate David Robinson, was instantly one of the best players in the league winning FMVP in his second season. Over the rest of his career he won 5 championships, 2 MVPs, 15x All-Star and All-NBA including the oldest All-NBA first team selection at 36. He was a record breaking 15x All-Defense and is often considered the second best defender in NBA history despite not winning a DPOY.
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Puerto Rico (8 players)
All-Time: JJ Barea - 8.9/2.1/3.9 (2006-2020) - Longtime Maverick and fan favorite point guard JJ Barea won a championship in Dallas in 2011. He was still an effective scorer into his thirties scoring 10+ points per game in his age 31-34 seasons despite limited appearances.
*****
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did you know mark eaton is the only multi-time dpoy winner to not win it consecutively
submitted by WilhelmTheOkay to nba [link] [comments]

Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
Ref: https://imgur.com/OgrCGNg
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
Ref:
https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV
https://imgur.com/qE13Y32

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources.
2021 Fiscal year
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
submitted by whatisgf to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
Ref: https://imgur.com/OgrCGNg
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
Ref:
https://imgur.com/2CMg3OV
https://imgur.com/qE13Y32

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

Check the Spreadsheet for the Revenue Sources.
2021 Fiscal year
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
The outlook of the Cylance in 2021 and further
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 20 2023 SP 15. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
Edit1: thanks u/melbogia, added the date which I missed earlier for the calls.
submitted by whatisgf to stocks [link] [comments]

VGAC (Richard Branson SPAC) rumored to merge with 23andMe. ARKG buy likely. My DD and bull case.

TL/DR: Richard Branson's SPAC is rumored to be merging with 23andMe. 23andMe has an invaluable set of over 10 million human DNA sequences that are used to create ground-breaking drugs. Cathie Wood is VERY bullish on genomics, ARKG buying is highly likely. Beginning to add commons in the $13s; will add more once rumor is confirmed.
You probably know about 23andMe, the popular Christmas gift where you spit in a tube and they tell you ancestors are from. A recent Bloomberg rumor has said that VG Acquisition Corp (VGAC) is in talks to take them public. If confirmed, I believe that this deal has a proven management team and both short term and long term catalysts, including a likely stake from Cathie Wood and ARK in their ARKG fund.
VGAC Background
Size in trust - $480M
Commons - $13.46
Warrants* - $3.28
*Warrants are 1 for 1 and can be redeemed on a cashless basis
VG Acquisition Corp ($VGAC) is a SPAC led by the Virgin Group and its famous billionaire founder, Sir Richard Branson. They IPO'ed on October 2nd with $480M in trust.
You may remember that Branson was involved in the deal that arguably helped kick off the SPAC movement when he took Virgin Galactic public at the end of 2019 with Chamath's first SPAC, IPOA. SPCE became the first publicly traded space company and has fared well since it's public debut, currently trading at $48.50 with a 52 week high of nearly $60.
Virgin already has a foothold in the healthcare space through Virgin Care, which partners with the NHS and has quickly become the UK's largest healthcare provider. As of 2018 they were already profitable and pulling in over $300M in revenues. Its safe to say they understand the healthcare space already and how 23andMe can fit into it.
Branson and the Virgin name will naturally bring a lot of hype to VGAC. Virgin has previous experience with successful and wide-ranging businesses and multiple large mergers, including:
Branson and Virgin are innovators, savvy investors, and take early stakes in challenging industries like space travel, aerospace, telecom, and media. The man literally got knighted because of his "services to entrepreneurship". If identified 23andMe in only 4 months, clearly its a business they are highly interested in and see a lot of potential for the industry.
23andMe
23andMe was founded in 2006 by current CEO Anne Wojcicki as a direct to consumer genetic testing agency (for what it's worth, Wojcicki is also on the the star-studded AJAX SPAC search team). They were most recently valued at $2.5B in 2020 when they raised an $800M funding round.
They became popular for their ancestry platform, providing users with their ancestral background information. They also expanded to provide testing for an array of genetic diseases or pre-dispositions, including; late onset Alzheimers, Parkinson's, Type 2 Diabetes and Celiac Disease.
While the DNA test is their consumer flagship product, the real opportunity is in the data. 23andMe has the world's second largest genetic dataset with over 10 million tests performed (behind their competitor Ancestry at 16 million).
They are currently and will continue to utilize this massive genetic data, with a dedicated therapeutics team. Wojcicki said recently in a 60 minutes interview that "100% of revenues are going into our therapeutics". This is not a direct to consumer testing product, this is a drug company that has a MASSIVE amount of genetic data. The therapeutics team is growing rapidly, showing 16 open positions in therapeutics research at 23andMe, easily the most at the company.
They have already had some success on the therapeutics front. Last year they used their genetic data to create a protein that is able to block autoimmune diseases, this one targeted to psoriasis. They then were able to license this drug to Spanish drug company Almirall.
More importantly, they also secured a $300M investment and 4 year partnership with massive pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to use genetic data to develop new drugs, in particular for Parkinson's disease. GSK now has a major equity stake in the company and has the scale and expertise to utilize this data set.
In 2009, 23andMe started the world's largest Parkinson's trial with over 11,000 participants using their DNA.
This type of research is groundbreaking for genetically pre-disposed diseases that were previously difficult or impossible to treat. Their main focus at the time is Parkinson's disease and bi-polar an major depressive disorder.
Investors and Partners
Their value hasn't gone unnoticed. As mentioned they were last valued at $2.5B in 2020. Their major investors include Sequoia Capital ($250M), GlaxoSmithKline ($300M), Fidelity, and the National Institute of Health. They also have key partnerships with Pfizer, Biogen, Stanford University, University of Chicago, and Parkinson's foundations including Michael J Fox foundation, National Parkinson Foundation, and Parkinson's Institute and Clinical Center.
For a reference on their valuation, Blackstone bought a majority stake in their competitor Ancestry for $4.7B last year. Note that Ancestry is not focused on on therapeutics research the way that 23andMe is, so while they compete on the DTC DNA testing front, they don't seem to compete on a therapeutics front.
Momma Cathie
Cathie Wood of ARK has been clear in multiple interviews and articles recently that she is VERY bullish on genomics as the industry with the most room for growth in the next 10 years, even more so than electric vehicles and Tesla. Cathie directly tweeted about 23andMe back in 2015 when they only had 850,000 samples collected, so I'm sure she's even more excited now that they're over 10 million.
ARKG already has a number of direct DNA sequencing and therapeutics companies in its top holdings like Twist Bioscience, Pacific Biosciences, and Crispr Therapeutics. Cathie also frequently talks about how the companies with the best and earliest data set have a massive advantage (i.e Tesla autonomous driving because they have the most data on miles driven). She will view the massive mine of DNA data as a gold mine for the genomics revolution.
ARK has not shied away from SPACs in the past, with investments in OPEN, LGVW, DMYD and OAC all being pushed higher with ARK investments in them. In my opinion, 23andMe is a shoe-in for an ARKG investment once DA is confirmed and will send the stock higher and give it an "ARK" floor wherever they enter at.
Risk factors
There are risks associated with VGAC as with every stock and SPAC.
First, the initial reaction to this was muted. It popped from $12.90 to $13.90 on the rumor, and is now in the low $13s. It's possible that 23andMe simply doesn't generate a lot of investor attention as a target. I feel that this actually provides us with a buying opportunity that is being overlooked. With confirmation of a deal and a hopeful ARK buy, investors will begin to see the value of the data they have and this will run up similar to other SPACs have.
23andMe was highly popular in 2018, but their DTC DNA product has suffered recently with sales suffering in 2019 and they were forced to do layoffs in 2020. Ancestry also had to do layoffs as well as the whole at-home testing market was down.
Also important to note that in 2018 they were able to do nearly $500M in revenue (most recent revenue number I could find), but are not yet profitable as of 2020.
Privacy remains a main concern as well when you're dealing with millions of people's genetic code. When pressed on this in the 60 minutes interview, she states that users need to "opt-in" to share their data for this research and that nothing is ever used without consent. 80% of their users opt-in to share their data, which is about 8 million samples that are usable...still a very sizable genetic database to research from. Whether there will be legislation around how this data can be used is yet to be seen.
Another risk stems from the way in which they collect genome data. They use genotyping which is cheaper but less accurate than next gen sequencing technology.
Last, it is over 30% above NAV and is only a rumor. Bloomberg has generally been accurate on these rumors, but its important to note this is not an official announcement.
​
My Play
I currently have a starter position in VGAC commons here in the $13s. It may hover in the 13s or lower between now and the time rumor is confirmed, and I'll be adding heavily if it drops. On LOI and investor presentation, I'll likely add more and I conservatively expect this to hit $18-$20 pre-merger, higher with an ARK purchase.
​
u/HowDoesIStonks also provided a great DD here 5 days ago
Disclaimer: I have a starter position in VGAC commons at $13.50. I will look to add more on any dips and will potentially add more once structure of deal is known. This is not financial advice.
Edit 1: Added a risk factor and Cathie Wood tweet
Edit 2: Thanks everyone for all the feedback and commentary on this! I’ve learned a lot from the comments.
I still strongly stand by my bull case and believe that there is plenty of upside here, both for short term swing traders and long term investors. However I think it’s important to update if I learn something new. After reading this article and learning about the different types of genetic tests, I’ll change my stance on ARKG from “likely” buying to “possibly” buying. 10 million+ DNA tests is impressive and I imagine ARK will certainly consider a position, but it’s important to know the differences between genotyping done by 23andMe vs NGS testing which is more thorough and what ARK prefers.
Good luck everyone!
submitted by mattchu5 to SPACs [link] [comments]

How does Spacex get from SN9 to an orbital flight in less than eight months?

So since we’re all patiently waiting (and waiting, and waiting, and waiting….) for SN9 and the FAA to stop being such drama queens and fly already, let’s have a moment off and take a look at what milestones come after SN9’s flight.
Lots of people have repeatedly (and correctly) said that the Starship test program is a milestone-based one, meaning predictions on any hypothetical timeline are purely speculative and basically a waste of time and brain cells, as the timelines are incredibly fluid and unpredictable, which is very much true.
However, it seems to me that Gwynne Shotwell’s recent statement about Starship going orbital in Q3 of this year is worthy of a well-aimed shot (see what I did there?) at another step-by-step timeline. When Musk or reddit commenters like myself make timeline predictions, that’s just speculation (although obviously Musk knows exactly where they are in the program and what still needs to happen, he’s just overly optimistic), but Gwynne’s predictions are usually pretty solid and born out by results, so dismissing them out of hand seems a bit silly and arrogant to me, which a lot of commentators have done. I think Elon’s 2019 talk and timeline made us all a bit too excited, causing many to now react by sandbagging any given timelines too much instead. So let’s make the assumption that Gwynne knows what she’s talking about and Spacex really thinks they can get a Starship to orbit in Q3 this year. What still needs to be done to make that a reality? What flights, tests and events are going to happen between SN9 and orbit, and when?
Two notes to pre-empt certain comments:
1: I’m gonna interpret Q3 as meaning fairly early on in that quarter. Gwynne knows better than most how often things get delayed in the rocket business, so I doubt she’d make such a statement if Spacex was aiming for late september. Obviously this is highly subjective and probably wrong, but I’m gonna use early to mid august as the planned launch attempt, with late july being a best-case scenario and late august or early september being the worst one.
2: I think people conflate “getting a Starship to orbit” with “getting a fully and rapidly reusable Starship to orbit”. They are not the same thing by any means. If SN8 had had a booster underneath, it probably could have made it to orbit. Not with any payload (or any way to release that hypothetical payload), not with any way to survive re-entry (probably, though wasn’t it claimed at one point that Starship could survive a one-time shallow angle re-entry without a heat shield?), and definitely not with the hardware or software needed to land successfully or safely, but it would have reached orbit since its engines and controls worked perfectly fine on ascent. Remember, this is Spacex we’re talking about. I think they'll be more than willing to lose a Starship on re-entry just for gathering data, and if you’re gonna expend a Starship anyway, why not an early prototype? Sure, they will probably put some heat shielding on it and try to get it back down in one piece, but I don’t think they’re going to wait until the heat shield is perfected if doing so means not going orbital as soon as possible.
So what are the obstacles in getting any of the current Starships into orbit? To me, it looks like there are two big show-stoppers that will be a real challenge to overcome:
1 getting enough Raptor engines
2 getting the orbital launch mount operational
This is assuming that launching, flying and landing the Superheavy booster will be as “easy” as Spacex expects (as in it’s just a scaled up falcon 9) and that the current Starship prototypes are structurally strong enough to withstand max-Q. While these should not be taken for granted, they should also not create (m)any unknown unknowns. Spacex knows more about how to land an orbital booster than anyone else on earth, and SN8’s structure held up just fine both under internal pressure and the lateral loads of the skydive manoeuvre. But still, they should not be seen as “completely 100% solved” just yet.
As for the Raptors, that’s a complete mystery. We don’t know how many they are producing at the moment, we don’t know how fast they can ramp up production, we don’t know how many more Raptors will be lost during test flights, and we don’t know how many engines the first booster will need. So anyway, here’s my best guesstimate:
they need ~25 for a booster, they need ~20 for all the Starships between now and that first orbital flight (though not all at any one time), they will lose or take apart 5 to 10 Raptors over that time (pessimistic estimate to be safe), and they have around a dozen or so that are currently flight-capable (some on SN9, some at boca chica, some at mcgregor). This means that Spacex will need to produce at least 30 Raptors over the next six months to make it all happen. Meaning an average of one a week. Last we heard they were somewhere between one every two weeks and one every week, so the sooner they reach that 1/week milestone the less ramping above that they will need to achieve. This will be a challenge for sure, but it seems doable.
The orbital launch mount is an even bigger question mark. Its foundation pillars were completed very quickly, but since then it doesn’t look like much has happened to it. All I feel somewhat certain predicting are that there will be no big stationary crane by Q3, meaning Spacex will probably just bring in an even bigger mobile crane that can lift a few hundred tons of empty Starship a 150 m into the air (tip of the nose) and put it on top of the booster already on the stand. The pad itself will consist of a platform on top of the pillars that supports and holds down the Superheavy booster, with the fuel connectors on the side and a big hole under the engines with some flame diverter or suppression system underneath (whatever Elon and friends came up with, it better be sufficient). And yes, from what I’ve read the fuel farm can (barely) fill up one Starship Superheavy stack, though it will probably be enlarged regardless.
So, now that that essay is done, let’s move on to the actual timeline:
​
february
- SN9 flies
- SN10 is pressure tested, static fired and towards the end of the month flies
The flights beyond SN9 are all pretty much educated guesses (feel free to come up with your own), but to me the most likely next step is a faster, but still powered and controlled, ascent. Basically lift off like SN8&9 did, but don’t go upwards slowly by deep throttling and shutting down engines. Instead continue to accelerate faster and faster until SN10 is at its max-Q (as a reference, the falcon 9’s is at only 14 km), upon which throttle way way down to let gravity do its thing until SN10 comes to a relative stop just like SN8 did, before skydiving down and landing, only from a much greater height. I’m not sure at what altitude this v=0 point is, but it probably will be between 20 and 40 km up depending on the velocity and altitude at max-Q. This flight would be a proper shakedown test for the structure of the Starship, while also giving Spacex high-altitude data and practice with their belly flop in the upper atmosphere.
- SN11 is finished and rolled out for pressure testing
- BN1 finishes stacking and is rolled out to the launch pad (BN1 only has 2 to 4 engines, so no orbital mount needed for this one)
​
march
- SN15 finishes stacking, but does not get rolled out
- SN11 flies to space
The first Starship to go ballistic and cross the karman line. I don’t see much point in flying ballistic trajectories with the apogee still in the atmosphere, as that is not a profile Starship would fly under normal operations. SN11 is therefore my pick for the first Starship to lift off, fly at full throttle until its big tanks are (nearly) empty, cruise upward to an altitude of 111 km (come on, it’s Elon, you know he wants to go higher than new shepard and the ship is called SN11, no way that thing isn’t going to 111 or 111.1 km), before diving back down and (hopefully) landing.
- BN1 is pressure tested, has a static fire and hops
This one honestly should be pretty straightforward, a simple 150 m hop on two or three engines. It might not even have grid fins to avoid the risk of those big bags of cash getting damaged. Still, small hop or not, It should be noted that this will be the biggest booster ever flown, let alone landed, so no small feat.
- the orbital launch pad now becomes THE priority for construction
​
april
- SN15 gets at least a partial heat shield
- BN1 has a higher hop
Before Spacex risks landing (and losing) a booster with dozens of Raptor engines, they will want to make sure their models, calculations and predictions are correct by flying and landing a booster with as few engines as possible. To me, the safest way to do it would go like this: Spacex puts those big grid fins on BN1, flies it slowly upwards a few km, brings it to a halt, shuts off the engines, and watches it drop like a rock. This will pretty much be as low-energy a version of the booster coming down from space, using its grid fins to steer over to the landing pad, re-lighting its engines and landing safely as you can get.
- BN2 starts stacking
Might seem a bit late since parts of BN2 have already been spotted, but waiting until BN1 successfully hops before starting on BN2 makes sense to me. We know that BN2 will have the 20 outer engines meaning it will be a full-on orbital class booster. If Spacex does indeed start building it before BN1 hops then that means they are VERY certain their booster design is sound, which is both encouraging and somewhat alarming.
- lots and lots of orbital pad work
​
may
- SN15 flies
SN15 is very clearly the next big thing in the Starship lineup. SN8, 9, 10 and 11 are all basically carbon copies of each other with some minor differences. SN15 is supposed to have major upgrades, meaning it will have more than one major change from the Starships that came before it. My prediction is that SN15 will have some or all of these four improvements:
None of these are strictly needed for getting to orbit except maybe having six engines, depending on the Thrust/Weight and delta V of a three-engined Starship with no payload, but any of them would constitute a major upgrade over SN8 through SN11 for SN15. The one thing I think this Starship will have for sure is (part of) a heat shield, to get that test campaign started. Since Musk’s tweet contained “upgrades” SN15 probably will have some of the other changes as well. I’ve seen people claim that SN15 will have the thinner steel skin. Do we know this for certain? If so that would allow it to fly much higher and faster than SN11, giving it the extra delta V to get into space and shortly after reaching apogee, burn prograde to enter the atmosphere at a very high speed, simulating a re-entry and giving the heat shield its first real world test.
- BN2 is completed
- the orbital stand is finished
- SN16 is rolled out and static fired
SN16 is the one that I think will go orbital, meaning it will have all of the four upgrades mentioned for SN15, which also means that it will be tested and inspected more than any other Starship before or after (until crewed flights begin anyway).
​
june
- an even bigger mobile crane arrives
- SN15 flies for a second time.
Spacex has to start reflying Starships at some point, and if SN15 survives its first flight they might as well fly it until destruction, to see what component fails first.
- BN2 is put on the orbital pad and static fired with more, and more, and more, and more engines
- SN16 is put on top of BN2 to test the connection
Not having a launch tower means that the entire stack must be fueled from the bottom of the platform, including Starship. While this will basically force Spacex to get orbital refueling working on the ground right from the start, it also means a whole other list of tests and modifications to mate the booster and ship fuel systems together. Not a huge problem, but not negligible either.
​
july
- pressure testing is done with the full stack
- a short all engine burn is performed by the Superheavy with the total stack on the launch pad
​
late july/early august
- The biggest, most powerful rocket in history lifts off.
​
Obviously the exact chronology can (and probably will) differ massively, but I feel like I have compiled a decent path to orbit in Q3 for Starship.
If you disagree (which you have every right to), I would be very interested in hearing what you think will be the milestones and flights between now and orbit, assuming that Gwynne’s prediction of an orbital flight in Q3 turns out to be correct.
Looking forward to your opinions, reactions and personal takes.
submitted by afarawayland1 to spacex [link] [comments]

DD#10:$FUSE (Fusion Acquisition Corp) Part II: Bloomberg MoneyLink Rumor - LOI/DA Incoming

DD#10:$FUSE (Fusion Acquisition Corp) Part II: Bloomberg MoneyLink Rumor - LOI/DA Incoming
Disclosure: 121,000 Warrants in $FUSE across several accounts as of 1/28/2021
MoneyLion*
#TLDR
1.Buy $FUSE Commons <$12 prior to release of LOI (safest) with 20% downside risk. I expect commons to have a good chance at reaching $20 similar to IPOE.
2.Buy FUSE Warrants <$4.00 prior to release of LOI (less safe but higher possible returns). I expect warrants to get to $7-8$ similar to IPOE warrants.
I gave an alert few days ago on my Twitter to buy the warrants and commons the past two days because of the low prices and excellent risk profile.
​
Part 1: Summary
Fusion Acquisition Corp. is a blank-check company targeting fintech or asset and wealth management sectors. They are seeking a company with an enterprise value of $750 million to $3 billion. Deadline to find a target is 12/31/2021 and the search started 6 months ago. Rumor came out this evening (1/28/2020 - 19:26;37) on Bloomberg Terminal regarding MoneyLion going public via $FUSE. I expect an announcement of a target sometime in the next few days.
Figure 1. $FUSE Summary from spactrack.net as of 1/28 at close.
​
Figure 2. Mobile Bank MoneyLion in talks with $FUSE to go public posted on Bloomberg terminal 1/28/2020 - 19:26:37
​
Part 2: Management
Jim Ross (chairmen) Jim is a financial product innovator and experienced director. He is currently a senior advisor to State Street and is best known for being the global Chairman of its SPDR exchange-traded funds' business. He is an ETF pioneer and was instrumental in creating, developing, and bringing to market many of the world’s first ETFs, including ETFs in the U.S., Hong Kong and Australia. These included the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY), the first U.S. ETF and largest ETF in the world today, as well as the first gold ETF (NYSE: GLD).
John James (CEO): John is a successful institutional investor, asset manager, and founder and operator of multiple technology businesses including BetaSmartz, a fintech company servicing wealth and asset management firms. He has also been a strategic partner to global financial institutions. His career began in financial services, having co-founded an emerging market property and infrastructure fund, managing U.S. long/short equities portfolios, and advising on M&A transactions.
Jeff Gary (CFO): Jeff's significant financial services experience has covered M&A, portfolio management, corporate boards, private equity and SPACs. He was a Senior Portfolio Manager for 22 years at BlackRock, AIG and Avenue where he helped launch 10 new investment businesses including the BlackRock Capital BDC (BKCC), also sitting on the Investment Committee. He was a Co-Portfolio Manager for a fund at BlackRock which won CreditFlux’s 2007 “Best Credit Hedge Fund” award. While at Avenue Capital, he won the HFM US Performance Award for “Best 40 Act – Alternative” in 2013 and 2014. He is currently a board member and advisor to five companies including three fintech companies.
​
Pros:
1.Accomplished team including founder of SPY ETF.
2.Excellent connections in finance, Wall Street and fund managers that will allow the new public company to grow and attract deep monied investors.
3.$FUSE is well connected in United States, Canada, Israel, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East
Cons:
1.Boomer management
​
Part 3: MoneyLion Target
​
​
Figure 3. MoneyLion is expected to go public via $FUSE as per Bloomberg terminal.
MoneyLion is a financial company that was founded in 2013. In 2015, the company launched a mobile app with personal financial management and lending tools. In 2018 MoneyLion launched zero-fee checking with early access to paychecks and cashback rewards.The New York mobile bank raised $160M in funding in 2019, which gives it a valuation of nearly $1B [3,4]. I think the target is OK and will do reasonably well in the current financial environment and premium on innovative Fintech companies. Some folks are calling MoneyLion the "netflix of finance" with their subscription model [7]. Look at the action with Sofi and IPOE. I expect commons to reach $20 and warrants to $7-8 in the near future.
​
Pros:
1.Valuation at least of $1 Billion. I expect it be higher in this frothy market where companies that have high growth potential are valued with a premium.
2.Expect similar action to IPOE/SoFi - similar company.
3.Excellent management team, top 3 book runner, and a great target.
​
Cons:
1.Many folks do not know about MoneyLion.
​
​
Part 4: Positive Catalysts
1.Confirmation of Bloomberg Terminal statement tomorrow or the next few days with LOI/DA
2.Rotation of money from short covering to SPACs
3.Stimulus talks going forward
​
Part 5: Negative Catalysts
1.Denying Bloomberg terminal rumor
2.Short squeeze causing funds to sell off SPACS to cover their short positions in GME, AMC etc.
3.Folks not able to access their brokerage again on TD, Robinhood etc.
​
Part 6: Comparison to similar Fintech and valuation
Compared to similar fintech pre-LOI SPACs $FUSE has less room to fall and better asymmetric risk profile and DA/LOI is imminent:
As of 1/28/2021 at close:
$IPOE: Commons: $20.28 , Warrants: $7.36
$GSAH: Commons: $11.46, Warrants: $3.34
$AJAX: Commons: $11.65, Warrants: $3.19
​
As mentioned on the background on MoneyLion Valuation is around $1Billion but I suspect it to be higher in this frothy market. Expect similar action to IPOE/SoFi given the excellent management team, top 3 underwritebookrunner, and good quality fintech target.
​
#TLDR
1.Buy $FUSE Commons <$12 prior to release of LOI (safest) with 20% downside risk. I expect commons to have a good chance at reaching $20 similar to IPOE.
2.Buy FUSE Warrants <$4.00 prior to release of LOI (less safe but higher possible returns). I expect warrants to get to $7-8$ similar to IPOE warrants.
​
Friendly reminder:
Asymmetric risk. Diversify and remember the SPAC life cycle.
​
​
Figure 4.Figure 5. SPAC life cycle. $FUSE is currently pre-loi. u/SpiffyBareFac)
​
Part 7: Previous DD:
On $FGNA, $CCIV,$FUSE, $GRAF/$VLDR, $SBE/Chargepoint, $GIX, and $SHLL/$HYLN, $LATN
DD#1 https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/hn1qio/dd_on_shll_and_shllw/
DD#2 https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/ihy9xe/dd_on_shll_and_shllwt_part_two/
DD#3 https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/iydwnc/dd_on_shll_graf_and_sbe_part_three/
DD#4 https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/k14qd3/dd_4_on_gix_uph/
DD#5https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/kjidcj/dd5_on_fuse_fusion_acquisition_corp_excellent/
DD#6https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/kmq7kk/dd6_latn_union_acquisition_corp_ii_latin_based/
DD#7https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/kt5yc1/dd7_on_gsah_ii_goldman_sachs_acquisition_holdings/
DD#8https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/kvhd0i/dd7_on_cciv_churchill_capital_corp_iv_lucid/
DD#9 https://www.reddit.com/SPACs/comments/kxzlhd/dd8_on_fgna_fg_new_america_acquisition_corp/
​
References
1.https://www.fusionacq.com/
2.https://spactrack.net/activespacs/
3.https://www.investopedia.com/what-is-moneylion-and-how-does-it-make-money-4584503
4.https://www.forbes.com/sites/donnafuscaldo/2019/07/23/moneylion-raises-160-million-at-a-valuation-nearing-1-billion/?sh=1229ee24a527
5.https://bankautomationnews.com/allposts/lending/the-netflix-of-finance-how-moneylion-is-evolving-its-subscription-offering/?amp=1
submitted by canadian2020 to SPACs [link] [comments]

Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Alright folks, here's the comprehensive guide about the BB products, revenue details, customers, and what's in the store in the future. It's quite a lengthy one, please bare with me as you read and this is the first time I looked up regarding a company at this depth.
Some background on the John Chen, who took up a massive challenge when he was the CEO for Sybase where the stock price was around 4-5$. But when he sold off to SAP it was around 65$, although it took 10 years to accomplish. He understands the business quite well and knows where to focus to generate more revenue and certainly be the best in what they do and provide the best to their customers.

Why should companies embrace BB products?

Achievements:
https://preview.redd.it/cz63xa3mpdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d43da67de4b0ed5c4ed30205b8f95aaeec0551a
Achievements in 2019 (According to 10-k report):
Certifications
Let's highlight the security certifications BB got in 2020.
Before you read about the certifications which BB got, let this statement sink in deeply
No other software vendor in the cybersecurity space has been awarded more security certification by the US Government than BlackBerry.
In Q3 2020, BlackBerry UEM achieved the National Security Agency, NSA, commercial solution for classified program approval. This adds to the portfolio of US government certifications we have received for BlackBerry UEM including the NIAP-certification, the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Product List, which I think we talked about last quarter, DoDIN APL, FedRAMP and FIPS 140-2.
Context from Q3 2020 earnings call:
Certifications
Recognition
As you see from multiple research firms, BB stands out in what are they doing
https://preview.redd.it/gzh9ledvkdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=78121316772b69e9337623695dfde2a7e58cb44a
https://preview.redd.it/f7ygjt9wkdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a3207f447c23954e2fdb6236baea642373dc6cf

Which Markets BB has and will be targeting?

What Products are offered by BB?

I'll share brief info about the below products specific to QNX itself
QNX OTA:
QNX Over the Air (OTA) is a customized remote software update solution addressing the increasingly complex requirements of embedded system manufacturers. It can be tailored to seamlessly and securely update and manage endpoints on a variety of embedded systems.
QNX Acoustics Management Platform:
Design and manage the total vehicle sonic experience with a pure software solution designed to run on general-purpose application processor cores for cost-effective high-fidelity sound.
QNX Multimedia Suite:
If the OEM or developers would like to use a framework to build multimedia players.
QNX Black Channel Communications:
It provides reliable data transmission and consumption and greatly reduces the scope of certification while eliminating the need to have a safety certified network stack. It's critical across automotive, robotics, industrial controls, and medical device industries. It can run on QNX® OS (SDP 7.0 or QOS 2.1), Linux® or SafeRTOS.
QNX ADAS:
Integrates sensor feeds from diverse sources (Camera, Radar, LiDAR, IMU, GPS sensors, etc.) into your critical embedded systems, including autonomous driving applications.
RADAR:
Launched in 2016, it is a complete asset tracking solution providing reliable visibility to trailer, chassis, containers and equipment. These ruggedized devices are easy-to-install, low maintenance and long-lasting to minimize operational disruptions and maximize your ROI.
How it’s different from rest of the competitors:
Do check this post about description of the below products: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l4ehan/blackberry_dd/

How can the BB retain leading position in different sectors?

The Company’s goal is to remain a leader in regulated industries and other core verticals by continuing to extend the functionality of its secure BlackBerry Spark® software platform (UEM + UES).

How does the EV Sector Exponential Growth help BB?

Well, the 2020 to 2022 is a period for gaining significant momentum in the Smart EV sector and which shall rapidly accelerate from 2023 to 2025. As we are noticing multiple companies in EV sector trying to launch their products.
Most of the companies would love to be part of the growing EV sector as it just the beginning excluding TESLA. They will eventually develop products/platforms for OEM's and Tier1 and provide it as a service.
As EV sector evolves more, we should see more partnerships across other companies which aren't part of BB yet might be inclined to use at least one product. As the BB product offerings are diverse and the customer success stories about how they have played a role while manufacturing their own EV products with minimal efforts can boost the marketing efforts.
Chen stated they are going after the other 6 OEM's which aren't using the Blackberry yet. Currently, BlackBerry QNX has design wins with 19 of top 25 Electric Vehicle OEMs, who together have 61% of EV market.

How is BB coping up during the COVID?

The company expects BlackBerry QNX revenue to be negatively impacted by a slowdown in automotive market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which could be partially offset by increased customer demand for the Company’s endpoint security and productivity solutions that support business continuity and remote working environments, including the BlackBerry Spark platform, SecuSUITE and BlackBerry AtHoc.

What's upcoming and where is BB focusing strategically?

The Company is developing a concept system to integrate BlackBerry Spark capabilities, including AI and machine learning technologies, with BlackBerry QNX automotive solutions. Have to watch out for more information during the earnings calls.

How was the Customers growth among BB products?

QNX:
QNX was acquired by BB in 2010, right from that moment, BB started its journey in Automotive industry. Initially, it has launched Infotainments and Telematic under QNX product category and it was deployed on leading car manufacturers. It started branching out and was able to offer more products under QNX. Now it is has aligned itself very well for the next gen EV cars.
Adoption of QNX products from 2016 to 2020:
As we see, the growth has been substantial, and we can expect it grow more as we see more cars from new manufacturers and from existing ones and also automotive driving platforms especially in EV sector. There are currently 1.4 billion cars approximately. In 2018, approximately 4.2 million heavy commercial vehicles and just over 20 million light commercial vehicles were produced throughout the world.
It’s estimated to have at least 470 million cars by 2025.
Link: https://www.itsdigest.com/470-million-connected-vehicles-road-2025.
The market share is about 10% in total across automotive
Customers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NQQ6lkby32kHu2tWqbfYqlDEYy90KI6QfsyYd8moYjo/edit?usp=sharing
IVY:
KARMA Automotive is the first customer to use this product.
Link: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2020/blackberry-collaborating-with-amazon-web-services-to-demonstrate-safe-secure-and-intelligent-connected-vehicle-software-platform-for-in-vehicle-applications
Chen stated that there won't be much of the revenue growth from IVY until 2023.
Under the terms of our agreement, BlackBerry will own all the commercial relationships with customers and will share revenues with AWS.
The target is to be in the 2023 year’s auto model, with possibly potentially some professional services prior to it. While it is too early for us to provide a revenue outlook, we are confident that BlackBerry IVY addresses a very large market opportunity that will greatly increase our ASP.
Cylance:
It is part of the Blackberry Spark product under UES category
Typically, Cylance subscription period is 1 to 3 yrs. based on the deal’s BB made.
Leader in EPP (Endpoint Protection Platform) and they are able to catch with competitors in EDR (Endpoint Detection and Response)
Customers:
Added 279 new customers and new active subscription customer growth was about 15%. Notable new customers include General Motors, Becton Dickinson, Phillips Healthcare, SKF, which is one of Sweden’s largest manufacturers, the New Zealand Defense Force and the United States Census Bureau, just to name a few.
Verizon launched their business internet secure offering, which includes our BlackBerry smart AV antivirus product and Cisco’s Umbrella security service.
Blackberry Spark:
Spark is collection of BlackBerry Cylance, BlackBerry® UEM, BlackBerry® Dynamics™ and BlackBerry® Workspaces products. BB to pushing its efforts for customers to choose this product in 2021.
Spark, as a reminder, is a combination of UEM and UES, the Unified Endpoint Security offerings. In the 2020 Q2, Q3, BB made good progress in both the government, and financial services verticals with customer wins
In addition, they had success in verticals including healthcare and manufacturing sector.
Up on the acquisition of Cylance company, BB was able to integrate it with its existing products which will be part of UES suite. Customers are inclined to upgrade from UEM (Unified Endpoint Management) to UES (Unified Endpoint Security)
Customers are eager to get with UES:
UEM Suite
UEM Suite was added to the Department of Defense Information Network Approved Products List (DoDIN APL). BlackBerry is the only UEM vendor that has achieved this level of approval to date. This achievement is based on the completion of cybersecurity and interoperability certifications. This approval will provide us better access and a more streamlined approval process. This should naturally lead to greater revenue opportunities going forward. The latest release of UEM has also recently achieved NIAP accreditation
AtHoc:
Zoom was one of the customers who is using AtHoc product, after we know what happened to the stock when street found out that it wasn't secure. In this way, Zoom can highly secure way to hold virtual meetings in this new work-from-anywhere environment.
Even, Microsoft Teams and ServiceNow’s Now platforms are on AtHoc. As we know, Teams market leader has 116 million active users and Service Now 51%, IT Service management.
Customers:
BlackBerry Radar:
In 2020, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to deploy product on 2,000 of its domestic intermodal chassis.
In 2019, one of the top three U.S. retailers specializing in home improvement. The customer placed a 2,500 unit’s order.
In 2019 fiscal year, they have added 50 new customers and recurring revenue from the existing customers.
A big part of our competitive advantage is the BlackBerry legacy experience in designing a reliable, secure solution,” Plaat said. “That’s an important issue in this industry with high capital assets that you keep for years. The ROI is very good for a reliable solution like ours.”
Customers:

BB Revenue:

2021 Fiscal year
2021 Fiscal year Revenue
Note: Software and Services include these products IoT, QNX, BlackBerry Spark, AtHoc, Radar.
The revenue got impacted due to 2020 chaos especially on the QNX product side. According to the earning calls. There are still on track to maintain the gross margin over 70% and dollar net retention rate is above 90%.
As you see, the gross margin has been consistent past few years and revenue is steadily increasing every year.
https://preview.redd.it/147chgljmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=af6ade569cac42d01dcef342390394b79e588e0b
Revenue, Gross Margin, Net Income, EPS for years 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016
https://preview.redd.it/52xi873qmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=8643de72c426efc2f08fa9cf431bbb2c5fbbb26e
Growth in Revenue from Products from 2019-2013:
https://preview.redd.it/aen6tm7tmdf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=69907fd3fc1ed299f100fde92c68e5a5665ebd6f
Notes:
In 2019, due to restructuring, BB was unable to close deals, we should see +ve in 2020.
IoT: Comprised of QNX products, UEM, & Radar
Other: Handheld Devices and Service Access Fee (SAF)
Since BB was moving away from manufacturing of devices gradually, in 2020 most of it done by third party companies. That’s why we have negative growth under Other.

Pricing for BB products

QNX Pricing:
As there are many modules under QNX, like hypervisor, ADAS, clusters, cockpit, IVI. The cost ranges anywhere from the low-single digit dollars to literally high-single digit or low-double digit dollars per module.
Trefis estimates BlackBerry generates about $4 in QNX revenue per vehicle. Automakers are only expected to ship about 62 million new vehicles this year, according to Statista Research. Assuming QNX is installed on at least half of those vehicles, BlackBerry would generate about $120 million in annual sales -- or nearly a fifth of its trailing 12-month software and services revenue -- from QNX this year.
Link: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/investors-overreacting-blackberry-deal-with-amazon/
Unfortunately, we don't know the exact price the QNX OS costs or per say other modules under QNX. If more modules of QNX are used, then it's adds up and the Average Rate for Per Unit might be 4x or 5x.
This gives us an idea about how to get more revenue from QNX itself when the manufacturer would use other modules under QNX apart from OS.
We have already seen list of the OEM's from previous posts and in the above spreadsheet you saw list of the QNX products certain OEM's are using.
IoT subscription period is typically 4 yrs.
Radar Pricing:
Estimation in 2017:
BlackBerry charges $10 to $20 per month for every trailer connected to Radar.
The Go-to-Market objective is to have approximately a 50-50 split in Radar sales between BlackBerry’s channel partners and its direct sales force. BlackBerry Radar partners typically sell only this particular solution.
Recently, BB was able to expand channel ecosystem to more than 12 channel partners, this new partnership might help BB capture more of the logistics and transportation area.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackberry-radar-expands-channel-ecosystem-with-new-partners-301052631.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-recovery/born-again-blackberry-canadian-icon-hopes-to-ride-trucks-to-growth-idUSKBN1901P1
Cylance Pricing:
Cylance might charge 55$ per endpoint per year.
Announced that Forrester found that BlackBerry Cylance’s AI-driven endpoint security products delivered a 99 percent return on investment. We will see more revenue in 2021 as we shared earlier that customers who bought UEM are excited about UES too.
At present, the market share is below 1%.
Ref: https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/ep--359
https://preview.redd.it/abqz6zscndf61.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=632f51e1c860000c77f238cff6e1db4c0ccaea19
Projected Product Sector Revenue Growth by 2025:
QNX:
According to survey, the Global In-Vehicle Infotainment Market size is expected to reach $42.7 billion by 2025 (This is where we shall see more competition from different OEM manufacturers as they build their own products)
Global Market Insights, Inc. has recently added a new report on automotive operating system market which estimates the global market valuation for automotive OS will cross US$ 4.5 billion by 2026
And the QNX OS (Just the OS) segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/24/2132346/0/en/Automotive-OS-Market-to-hit-USD-4-5-Bn-by-2026-Global-Market-Insights-Inc.html
Endpoint Protection (Cylance):
The global endpoint security market is expected to grow from 13.58 billion $ in 2020 to 19.24 billion $ in 2025 at a CAGR of 7.6% during the forecast period.
https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/endpoint-security-market.
Assuming the market share in endpoint increases to ~3%. It can be around 577 million
Asset Management (Radar):
Global asset tracking market will reach $36.3B by 2025, growing at 15% CAGR
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/04/1995009/0/en/Global-Asset-Tracking-Market-2020-2025-Insights-Into-Technologies-Solutions-and-the-Ecosystem-Including-Major-Players.html
We have to know what the priority level for BB for this product and how much market share they are targeting in the upcoming years. It’s quite early to say about it and the contribution to the revenue is insignificant compared to other products.
Challenges:
QNX:
Toyota, VW, Mercedes Benz have started taking route of AGL (Automotive Grade Linux) which is an open source (free to use) which implies the QNX market share in OS is waning. These are big manufacturers and how blackberry shall adapt is wait and see game.
There is always a case where companies might decide not to use more of the QNX modules just the OS, this will impact the Average Selling Price (ASP) per car as well as the revenue since those modules add up 4x-5x ASP.
IVY:
Revenue from Blackberry IVY shall be more reflective from 2023, stated by Chen. So, there is uncertainty in this area and no revenue estimate. We have to see how this partnership plays out how companies are willing to adopt cloud platform for insights and management of the automotive software’s.
Cylance:
Currently, the market is highly competitive, and BB has to make it way to top 10 and capture more market share. In 2021, it shall unfold more about it as we are seeing rapid growth in IoT sector across various sectors.
The BB is in the right position to capture more of the automotive market and we have to see how it shall play out in coming years when EV sector is full blown and more cars are delivered, and security threats increase. Also, it offers the endpoint protection, which certainly companies can benefit but not necessarily the SMB which are driven through e-commerce platforms.
Radar:
It’s barely scratching the surface in this sector and as there are bigger sharks who have been in the market for long time.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, the Company previously stated that it expected to generate $100 million in cumulative revenue from its BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution over the next three years. The Company no longer expects to generate this revenue within this time frame. (This is a set back and there are other competitors who have been in the Logistics and Transportation Industry for quite some time).
In general, BB has to pitch itself more aggressively in other sectors especially in Medical, Industrial, Oil and Energy. Considering the certifications they have and the clients they serve.
Thanks to OP's and go give a read at these DD's too:
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ks4s3s/bb_king_the_blast_from_the_past_with_the/
https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l37ktg/bb_weekend_due_diligence_confirmation_bias/
Target Price in 2021: 25-30 (by not considering crazy valuations into account). I personally believe if the IVY platform and Spark product revenue increases then we can certainly see the stock price 4x-5x in coming years.
Positions: 400 shares @ 12 and 2 Jan 15 2023 calls. I plan to add more as I see the potential and growth in the newly introduced products.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, I'm merely a random person who loves BB and would like to see this company fly to new heigths. Cheers to everyone!!
submitted by whatisgf to BB_Stock [link] [comments]

Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
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top 10 best mobile in world 2019 video

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