Market pros hold out little hope that Congress will agree to a stimulus package before September, but they will look to Jerome Powell in the coming week to provide a roadmap for what else the Fed might do to help the economy.
The Fed holds its annual Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday, and it will conduct the Kansas City Fed-sponsored meeting virtually rather than against the backdrop of the Grand Tetons as it normally does at this time of year. The Fed chairman speaks Thursday morning on the implications for monetary policy and the Fed’s anticipated policy framework review.
The past week was a big week for markets, with the S&P 500 finally recovering its losses from the pandemic selloff and setting new all-time highs. Stocks have been big beneficiaries of the Fed’s easy policies and low interest rates, and Fed officials are widely expected to sound dovish when they meet in the coming week.
“I think we know the Fed’s all in. If anything they want the mechanicals to work right,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “The basic Fed policy is crystal clear. You’re going to have low rates for the foreseeable future. They will do whatever it takes.”
But Fed watchers expect Powell to go further than the Fed’s already extraordinary support for the economy and financial conditions, and offer guidance on new language and policies that will help the markets understand how long it might hold those low rates and extraordinary policies in place.
For instance, the Fed was expected to provide a more explicit forward guidance policy, and it could also introduce inflation averaging, meaning the Fed could specify that it could both undershoot and overshoot its 2% inflation target. Inflation has only occasionally surpassed its target over the past dozen years, since the financial crisis.
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, said he expects the Fed will introduce forward guidance and average inflation targeting at its September meeting. He expects the Fed’s policy review to examine all of its policies to determine which work best in different circumstances.
Since the markets collapsed in February and March, the Fed has cut rates to zero and helped increase liquidity with different facilities for different areas of the capital markets like commercial paper, municipal bonds and corporate bonds. It also created lending programs and continues to buy a large amount of Treasury securities and mortgages. Its balance sheet has now ballooned to $7 trillion.
With average inflation targeting, the Fed would allow the economy and inflation to run hotter than target, without immediately taking steps to tighten policy, according to Jim Caron, fixed income portfolio manger with Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
“What they’re saying is if the economy starts to recover, let’s say we get a vaccine, or the rate of infection goes down, and the equity market is on a tear, they’re not going to stop it,” said Caron. “They’re going to stay there for awhile. That’s what they’re trying to communicate.”
Where’s the stimulus?
As markets await clarity from the Fed, market pros are expecting less from Congress after first initially anticipating a stimulus package by early August.
“At this point, the thing I’m most thinking about is are we going to get a stimulus deal or not,” said Keon. “I think the politics are shifting beneath that.” He said some Republicans in Congress may be less inclined to spend on a big package ahead of the election.
Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of the package. One hot button issue is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed. It expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels. The White House meanwhile has moved to provide $300 a week in aid from FEMA funds but the states have to process those payments.
The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion.
“Some folks are discovering their inner budget hawks. It looks like the positions of the two sides are moving further away rather than closer together,” said Keon. “As the election moves up on us, the possibilities of a deal are going down...the markets are slowly moving toward the idea we don’t get stimulus deal and we might get a Biden presidency. It’s not panicking about it.”
The Democratic party held its convention this past week, formally nominating former vice president Joseph Biden to head the Democratic ticket. The Republican convention begins Monday. Biden leads President Donald Trump by an average 7.4 percentage points in the major polls, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
Michael Schumacher, director rate strategy at Wells Fargo, said he too is becoming more skeptical a stimulus deal will get done. “As the election season gets going, it appears to be getting harder and harder, not from a timing standpoint but from a lack of goodwill standpoint,” he said.
Strategists said if the economic data weakens, that could hurt stocks and get Congress back to negotiating a new package. There had been expectations a package would include a one-time payment for individuals and families, enhanced unemployment payments and aid for state and local governments.
Raymond James Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said the two sides are likely to come together, but without a catalyst forcing them it may wait until they need to pass a continuing resolution on the budget Sept. 30. “Democrats are not going to allow for an appropriations bill to pass that does not include additional support for the economy,” said Mills.
It’s the economy
There is some key data in the week ahead that should show how manufacturing and the consumer are faring.
Durable good is reported Wednesday, while personal income and spending data is reported Friday. Consumer confidence is Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Friday.
Energy markets will be keeping a close eye on two tropical storms that are heading into the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall early Wednesday. One storm, Laura is tracking close to Florida, and a second storm, possibly to be named Marco looks to be heading across the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf.
It would be unprecedented in the era of satellites and modern hurricane tracking technology for two storms to arrive within 24 hours. The Weather Channel reports there was such an occurrence in September, 1933.
September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years
Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup.
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Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers.
5 Charts To See With Stocks At New Highs
“Better late than never.”
It took a while, but the S&P 500 Index finally made a new all-time high, coming all the way back from the vicious 34% bear market in less than six months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
It might bring back some scary memories, but back in March it took the S&P 500 only 16 days to go from new highs to a bear market (down 20%), the fastest ever.
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“This will go down as the fastest bear market ever, but also one of the fastest recoveries ever,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Then again, we’ve never quite seen a recession and recovery like this, so maybe it isn’t a shock to see new highs this quickly.”
The bear officially lasted one month and took five months to recover the losses. Usually when there’s a bear market during a recession, it takes 30 months to recover those loses. This was the third-fastest ever, with only 3 months to recover from a bear market recession in the early ‘80s and 4 months to recover from a bear market in the early ‘90s.
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It seems like earlier this year and new highs were a lifetime ago, but the S&P 500 finally moved off unlucky 13, notching the 14th new high of 2020.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, returns after a long time without new highs actually get better. One, three, six, and 12 months after the first new high in more than five months show stronger performance than average or after any new highs. Yet another reason to think that this bull market from a long-term point of view could have some more tricks up its sleeve.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we found there were four other times the S&P 500 made a new high during a recession: In February ’61, July ’80, November ’82, and March ’91. Incredibly, a new expansion started the following month every single time. Could stocks at new highs be signaling an end to this recession? We think that very well could be the case again this time.
Largest S&P 500 Stocks + Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla (TSLA) is now up 50% over the last 10 calendar days dating back to August 11th. This has propelled the company way up the list of the largest US companies.
Below is a table of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 with Tesla (TSLA) included. As shown, Tesla's $382.7 billion market cap would rank it as the 9th largest stock in the S&P 500 were it in the index.
On August 11th, Tesla's market cap was just $256 billion, so over the last ten days it has leapfrogged companies like Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Mastercard (MA), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Next up would be Visa (V) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which have market caps just under $400 billion. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.
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B.I.G. Tips - Earnings Season and Top Triple Plays
Walmart (WMT) wrapped up the Q2 2020 earnings reporting period on Tuesday with a huge beat on both the top and bottom line. It was a fitting end to what turned out to be a record-setting earnings season.
As we highlighted in our Q2 Earnings Season preview in early July, analysts were rapidly increasing earnings estimates leading up to earnings season. Normally when that happens, stocks have trouble performing well during earnings season because the expectations bar has been set higher. This season, even with analyst estimates on the rise in the four weeks leading up to the start of the reporting period, companies managed to beat bottom-line EPS estimates at the highest rate in the history of our database going back to 1999.
As shown below, 76% of companies reported stronger-than-expected EPS numbers this season, which eclipsed the prior record high of 73% seen during the Q3 2006 reporting period.
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Long-term Bespoke subscribers know how much we like earnings triple plays, but for those that haven’t heard of the term, we came up with it back in the mid-2000s. An earnings triple play is a company that beats EPS estimates, beats revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance all in the same quarterly earnings report. Investopedia.com is one of the best online resources for financial markets education, and they’ve actually given us credit for coining the “triple play” term on their website. We consider triple play stocks to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we are constantly finding new long-term buy opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.
This earnings season there were a massive number of earnings triple plays. We went through the list of this season's triple plays to find the ones that have the most attractive set-ups heading into the earnings off-season.
- $BBY
- $DG
- $CRM
- $DLTR
- $INTU
- $DKS
- $MDT
- $PANW
- $SJM
- $ICLK
- $OKTA
- $MRVL
- $ADSK
- $HRL
- $WDAY
- $BIG
- $COTY
- $ULTA
- $BOX
- $SPLK
- $BNS
- $TOL
- $VMW
- $BMO
- $TD
- $VEEV
- $HPE
- $DELL
- $BILI
- $BURL
- $PLCE
- $ANF
- $OLLI
- $PLAN
- $FLWS
- $VIOT
- $RY
- $HPQ
- $SOL
- $BITA
- $ATHM
- $NTAP
Monday 8.24.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 8.24.20 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.25.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 8.25.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.26.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.26.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 8.27.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 8.27.20 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.28.20 Before Market Open:
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Friday 8.28.20 After Market Close:
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Best Buy Co., Inc. $114.00
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $9.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.78% with revenue decreasing by 5.62%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.9% above its 200 day moving average of $81.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,266 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Dollar General Corporation $198.93
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $7.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 37.36% with revenue increasing by 11.43%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $169.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,689 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce $207.53
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $4.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.66 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.35% with revenue increasing by 22.59%. Short interest has decreased by 30.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.5% above its 200 day moving average of $172.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 35,186 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $100.30
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $6.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.17% with revenue increasing by 8.00%. Short interest has decreased by 18.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $88.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,204 contracts of the $108.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
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Intuit Inc. $322.23
Intuit Inc. (INTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.11 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,950.00% with revenue increasing by 55.94%. Short interest has decreased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.3% above its 200 day moving average of $274.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 852 contracts of the $290.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $46.28
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.03 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.25% with revenue decreasing by 5.72%. Short interest has increased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $38.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,349 contracts of the $48.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Medtronic, Inc. $98.73
Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 82.54% with revenue decreasing by 23.80%. Short interest has decreased by 10.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $101.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,793 contracts of the $102.00 put expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. $269.33
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $920.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.37 to $1.40 per share on revenue of $915.00 million to $925.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.73% with revenue increasing by 14.27%. Short interest has decreased by 17.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $221.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,759 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
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J.M. Smucker Co. $112.09
J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $1.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.33% with revenue increasing by 1.75%. Short interest has increased by 48.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% above its 200 day moving average of $108.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters.
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iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited $8.95
iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (ICLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $56.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $56.00 million to $60.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 13.99%. Short interest has increased by 92.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 63.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 91.6% above its 200 day moving average of $4.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 29.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Market pros hold out little hope that Congress will agree to a stimulus package before September, but they will look to Jerome Powell in the coming week to provide a roadmap for what else the Fed might do to help the economy.
The Fed holds its annual Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday, and it will conduct the Kansas City Fed-sponsored meeting virtually rather than against the backdrop of the Grand Tetons as it normally does at this time of year. The Fed chairman speaks Thursday morning on the implications for monetary policy and the Fed’s anticipated policy framework review.
The past week was a big week for markets, with the S&P 500 finally recovering its losses from the pandemic selloff and setting new all-time highs. Stocks have been big beneficiaries of the Fed’s easy policies and low interest rates, and Fed officials are widely expected to sound dovish when they meet in the coming week.
“I think we know the Fed’s all in. If anything they want the mechanicals to work right,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “The basic Fed policy is crystal clear. You’re going to have low rates for the foreseeable future. They will do whatever it takes.”
But Fed watchers expect Powell to go further than the Fed’s already extraordinary support for the economy and financial conditions, and offer guidance on new language and policies that will help the markets understand how long it might hold those low rates and extraordinary policies in place.
For instance, the Fed was expected to provide a more explicit forward guidance policy, and it could also introduce inflation averaging, meaning the Fed could specify that it could both undershoot and overshoot its 2% inflation target. Inflation has only occasionally surpassed its target over the past dozen years, since the financial crisis.
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, said he expects the Fed will introduce forward guidance and average inflation targeting at its September meeting. He expects the Fed’s policy review to examine all of its policies to determine which work best in different circumstances.
Since the markets collapsed in February and March, the Fed has cut rates to zero and helped increase liquidity with different facilities for different areas of the capital markets like commercial paper, municipal bonds and corporate bonds. It also created lending programs and continues to buy a large amount of Treasury securities and mortgages. Its balance sheet has now ballooned to $7 trillion.
With average inflation targeting, the Fed would allow the economy and inflation to run hotter than target, without immediately taking steps to tighten policy, according to Jim Caron, fixed income portfolio manger with Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
“What they’re saying is if the economy starts to recover, let’s say we get a vaccine, or the rate of infection goes down, and the equity market is on a tear, they’re not going to stop it,” said Caron. “They’re going to stay there for awhile. That’s what they’re trying to communicate.”
Where’s the stimulus?
As markets await clarity from the Fed, market pros are expecting less from Congress after first initially anticipating a stimulus package by early August.
“At this point, the thing I’m most thinking about is are we going to get a stimulus deal or not,” said Keon. “I think the politics are shifting beneath that.” He said some Republicans in Congress may be less inclined to spend on a big package ahead of the election.
Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of the package. One hot button issue is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed. It expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels. The White House meanwhile has moved to provide $300 a week in aid from FEMA funds but the states have to process those payments.
The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion.
“Some folks are discovering their inner budget hawks. It looks like the positions of the two sides are moving further away rather than closer together,” said Keon. “As the election moves up on us, the possibilities of a deal are going down...the markets are slowly moving toward the idea we don’t get stimulus deal and we might get a Biden presidency. It’s not panicking about it.”
The Democratic party held its convention this past week, formally nominating former vice president Joseph Biden to head the Democratic ticket. The Republican convention begins Monday. Biden leads President Donald Trump by an average 7.4 percentage points in the major polls, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
Michael Schumacher, director rate strategy at Wells Fargo, said he too is becoming more skeptical a stimulus deal will get done. “As the election season gets going, it appears to be getting harder and harder, not from a timing standpoint but from a lack of goodwill standpoint,” he said.
Strategists said if the economic data weakens, that could hurt stocks and get Congress back to negotiating a new package. There had been expectations a package would include a one-time payment for individuals and families, enhanced unemployment payments and aid for state and local governments.
Raymond James Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said the two sides are likely to come together, but without a catalyst forcing them it may wait until they need to pass a continuing resolution on the budget Sept. 30. “Democrats are not going to allow for an appropriations bill to pass that does not include additional support for the economy,” said Mills.
It’s the economy
There is some key data in the week ahead that should show how manufacturing and the consumer are faring.
Durable good is reported Wednesday, while personal income and spending data is reported Friday. Consumer confidence is Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Friday.
Energy markets will be keeping a close eye on two tropical storms that are heading into the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall early Wednesday. One storm, Laura is tracking close to Florida, and a second storm, possibly to be named Marco looks to be heading across the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf.
It would be unprecedented in the era of satellites and modern hurricane tracking technology for two storms to arrive within 24 hours. The Weather Channel reports there was such an occurrence in September, 1933.
September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years
Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers.
5 Charts To See With Stocks At New Highs
“Better late than never.”
It took a while, but the S&P 500 Index finally made a new all-time high, coming all the way back from the vicious 34% bear market in less than six months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
It might bring back some scary memories, but back in March it took the S&P 500 only 16 days to go from new highs to a bear market (down 20%), the fastest ever.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“This will go down as the fastest bear market ever, but also one of the fastest recoveries ever,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Then again, we’ve never quite seen a recession and recovery like this, so maybe it isn’t a shock to see new highs this quickly.”
The bear officially lasted one month and took five months to recover the losses. Usually when there’s a bear market during a recession, it takes 30 months to recover those loses. This was the third-fastest ever, with only 3 months to recover from a bear market recession in the early ‘80s and 4 months to recover from a bear market in the early ‘90s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
It seems like earlier this year and new highs were a lifetime ago, but the S&P 500 finally moved off unlucky 13, notching the 14th new high of 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, returns after a long time without new highs actually get better. One, three, six, and 12 months after the first new high in more than five months show stronger performance than average or after any new highs. Yet another reason to think that this bull market from a long-term point of view could have some more tricks up its sleeve.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we found there were four other times the S&P 500 made a new high during a recession: In February ’61, July ’80, November ’82, and March ’91. Incredibly, a new expansion started the following month every single time. Could stocks at new highs be signaling an end to this recession? We think that very well could be the case again this time.
Largest S&P 500 Stocks + Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla (TSLA) is now up 50% over the last 10 calendar days dating back to August 11th. This has propelled the company way up the list of the largest US companies.
Below is a table of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 with Tesla (TSLA) included. As shown, Tesla's $382.7 billion market cap would rank it as the 9th largest stock in the S&P 500 were it in the index.
On August 11th, Tesla's market cap was just $256 billion, so over the last ten days it has leapfrogged companies like Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Mastercard (MA), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Next up would be Visa (V) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which have market caps just under $400 billion. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.
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B.I.G. Tips - Earnings Season and Top Triple Plays
Walmart (WMT) wrapped up the Q2 2020 earnings reporting period on Tuesday with a huge beat on both the top and bottom line. It was a fitting end to what turned out to be a record-setting earnings season.
As we highlighted in our Q2 Earnings Season preview in early July, analysts were rapidly increasing earnings estimates leading up to earnings season. Normally when that happens, stocks have trouble performing well during earnings season because the expectations bar has been set higher. This season, even with analyst estimates on the rise in the four weeks leading up to the start of the reporting period, companies managed to beat bottom-line EPS estimates at the highest rate in the history of our database going back to 1999.
As shown below, 76% of companies reported stronger-than-expected EPS numbers this season, which eclipsed the prior record high of 73% seen during the Q3 2006 reporting period.
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Long-term Bespoke subscribers know how much we like earnings triple plays, but for those that haven’t heard of the term, we came up with it back in the mid-2000s. An earnings triple play is a company that beats EPS estimates, beats revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance all in the same quarterly earnings report. Investopedia.com is one of the best online resources for financial markets education, and they’ve actually given us credit for coining the “triple play” term on their website. We consider triple play stocks to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we are constantly finding new long-term buy opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.
This earnings season there were a massive number of earnings triple plays. We went through the list of this season's triple plays to find the ones that have the most attractive set-ups heading into the earnings off-season.
- $BBY
- $DG
- $CRM
- $DLTR
- $INTU
- $DKS
- $MDT
- $PANW
- $SJM
- $ICLK
- $OKTA
- $MRVL
- $ADSK
- $HRL
- $WDAY
- $BIG
- $COTY
- $ULTA
- $BOX
- $SPLK
- $BNS
- $TOL
- $VMW
- $BMO
- $TD
- $VEEV
- $HPE
- $DELL
- $BILI
- $BURL
- $PLCE
- $ANF
- $OLLI
- $PLAN
- $FLWS
- $VIOT
- $RY
- $HPQ
- $SOL
- $BITA
- $ATHM
- $NTAP
Monday 8.24.20 Before Market Open:
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Monday 8.24.20 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.25.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 8.25.20 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 8.26.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.26.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 8.27.20 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 8.27.20 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.28.20 Before Market Open:
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Friday 8.28.20 After Market Close:
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(NONE)
Best Buy Co., Inc. $114.00
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $9.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.78% with revenue decreasing by 5.62%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.9% above its 200 day moving average of $81.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,266 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar General Corporation $198.93
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $7.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 37.36% with revenue increasing by 11.43%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $169.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,689 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce $207.53
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $4.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.66 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.35% with revenue increasing by 22.59%. Short interest has decreased by 30.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.5% above its 200 day moving average of $172.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 35,186 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $100.30
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $6.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.17% with revenue increasing by 8.00%. Short interest has decreased by 18.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $88.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,204 contracts of the $108.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
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Intuit Inc. $322.23
Intuit Inc. (INTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.11 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,950.00% with revenue increasing by 55.94%. Short interest has decreased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.3% above its 200 day moving average of $274.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 852 contracts of the $290.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.
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DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $46.28
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.03 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.25% with revenue decreasing by 5.72%. Short interest has increased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $38.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,349 contracts of the $48.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.
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Medtronic, Inc. $98.73
Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 82.54% with revenue decreasing by 23.80%. Short interest has decreased by 10.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $101.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,793 contracts of the $102.00 put expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. $269.33
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $920.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.37 to $1.40 per share on revenue of $915.00 million to $925.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.73% with revenue increasing by 14.27%. Short interest has decreased by 17.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $221.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,759 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
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J.M. Smucker Co. $112.09
J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $1.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.33% with revenue increasing by 1.75%. Short interest has increased by 48.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% above its 200 day moving average of $108.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters.
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iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited $8.95
iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (ICLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $56.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $56.00 million to $60.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 13.99%. Short interest has increased by 92.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 63.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 91.6% above its 200 day moving average of $4.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 29.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
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Market pros hold out little hope that Congress will agree to a stimulus package before September, but they will look to Jerome Powell in the coming week to provide a roadmap for what else the Fed might do to help the economy.
The Fed holds its annual Jackson Hole symposium starting Thursday, and it will conduct the Kansas City Fed-sponsored meeting virtually rather than against the backdrop of the Grand Tetons as it normally does at this time of year. The Fed chairman speaks Thursday morning on the implications for monetary policy and the Fed’s anticipated policy framework review.
The past week was a big week for markets, with the S&P 500 finally recovering its losses from the pandemic selloff and setting new all-time highs. Stocks have been big beneficiaries of the Fed’s easy policies and low interest rates, and Fed officials are widely expected to sound dovish when they meet in the coming week.
“I think we know the Fed’s all in. If anything they want the mechanicals to work right,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “The basic Fed policy is crystal clear. You’re going to have low rates for the foreseeable future. They will do whatever it takes.”
But Fed watchers expect Powell to go further than the Fed’s already extraordinary support for the economy and financial conditions, and offer guidance on new language and policies that will help the markets understand how long it might hold those low rates and extraordinary policies in place.
For instance, the Fed was expected to provide a more explicit forward guidance policy, and it could also introduce inflation averaging, meaning the Fed could specify that it could both undershoot and overshoot its 2% inflation target. Inflation has only occasionally surpassed its target over the past dozen years, since the financial crisis.
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, said he expects the Fed will introduce forward guidance and average inflation targeting at its September meeting. He expects the Fed’s policy review to examine all of its policies to determine which work best in different circumstances.
Since the markets collapsed in February and March, the Fed has cut rates to zero and helped increase liquidity with different facilities for different areas of the capital markets like commercial paper, municipal bonds and corporate bonds. It also created lending programs and continues to buy a large amount of Treasury securities and mortgages. Its balance sheet has now ballooned to $7 trillion.
With average inflation targeting, the Fed would allow the economy and inflation to run hotter than target, without immediately taking steps to tighten policy, according to Jim Caron, fixed income portfolio manger with Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
“What they’re saying is if the economy starts to recover, let’s say we get a vaccine, or the rate of infection goes down, and the equity market is on a tear, they’re not going to stop it,” said Caron. “They’re going to stay there for awhile. That’s what they’re trying to communicate.”
Where’s the stimulus?
As markets await clarity from the Fed, market pros are expecting less from Congress after first initially anticipating a stimulus package by early August.
“At this point, the thing I’m most thinking about is are we going to get a stimulus deal or not,” said Keon. “I think the politics are shifting beneath that.” He said some Republicans in Congress may be less inclined to spend on a big package ahead of the election.
Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of the package. One hot button issue is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed. It expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels. The White House meanwhile has moved to provide $300 a week in aid from FEMA funds but the states have to process those payments.
The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion.
“Some folks are discovering their inner budget hawks. It looks like the positions of the two sides are moving further away rather than closer together,” said Keon. “As the election moves up on us, the possibilities of a deal are going down...the markets are slowly moving toward the idea we don’t get stimulus deal and we might get a Biden presidency. It’s not panicking about it.”
The Democratic party held its convention this past week, formally nominating former vice president Joseph Biden to head the Democratic ticket. The Republican convention begins Monday. Biden leads President Donald Trump by an average 7.4 percentage points in the major polls, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
Michael Schumacher, director rate strategy at Wells Fargo, said he too is becoming more skeptical a stimulus deal will get done. “As the election season gets going, it appears to be getting harder and harder, not from a timing standpoint but from a lack of goodwill standpoint,” he said.
Strategists said if the economic data weakens, that could hurt stocks and get Congress back to negotiating a new package. There had been expectations a package would include a one-time payment for individuals and families, enhanced unemployment payments and aid for state and local governments.
Raymond James Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said the two sides are likely to come together, but without a catalyst forcing them it may wait until they need to pass a continuing resolution on the budget Sept. 30. “Democrats are not going to allow for an appropriations bill to pass that does not include additional support for the economy,” said Mills.
It’s the economy
There is some key data in the week ahead that should show how manufacturing and the consumer are faring.
Durable good is reported Wednesday, while personal income and spending data is reported Friday. Consumer confidence is Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Friday.
Energy markets will be keeping a close eye on two tropical storms that are heading into the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall early Wednesday. One storm, Laura is tracking close to Florida, and a second storm, possibly to be named Marco looks to be heading across the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf.
It would be unprecedented in the era of satellites and modern hurricane tracking technology for two storms to arrive within 24 hours. The Weather Channel reports there was such an occurrence in September, 1933.
September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years
Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup.
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Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers.
5 Charts To See With Stocks At New Highs
“Better late than never.”
It took a while, but the S&P 500 Index finally made a new all-time high, coming all the way back from the vicious 34% bear market in less than six months.
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It might bring back some scary memories, but back in March it took the S&P 500 only 16 days to go from new highs to a bear market (down 20%), the fastest ever.
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“This will go down as the fastest bear market ever, but also one of the fastest recoveries ever,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Then again, we’ve never quite seen a recession and recovery like this, so maybe it isn’t a shock to see new highs this quickly.”
The bear officially lasted one month and took five months to recover the losses. Usually when there’s a bear market during a recession, it takes 30 months to recover those loses. This was the third-fastest ever, with only 3 months to recover from a bear market recession in the early ‘80s and 4 months to recover from a bear market in the early ‘90s.
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It seems like earlier this year and new highs were a lifetime ago, but the S&P 500 finally moved off unlucky 13, notching the 14th new high of 2020.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, returns after a long time without new highs actually get better. One, three, six, and 12 months after the first new high in more than five months show stronger performance than average or after any new highs. Yet another reason to think that this bull market from a long-term point of view could have some more tricks up its sleeve.
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Last, we found there were four other times the S&P 500 made a new high during a recession: In February ’61, July ’80, November ’82, and March ’91. Incredibly, a new expansion started the following month every single time. Could stocks at new highs be signaling an end to this recession? We think that very well could be the case again this time.
Largest S&P 500 Stocks + Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla (TSLA) is now up 50% over the last 10 calendar days dating back to August 11th. This has propelled the company way up the list of the largest US companies.
Below is a table of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 with Tesla (TSLA) included. As shown, Tesla's $382.7 billion market cap would rank it as the 9th largest stock in the S&P 500 were it in the index.
On August 11th, Tesla's market cap was just $256 billion, so over the last ten days it has leapfrogged companies like Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Mastercard (MA), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Next up would be Visa (V) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which have market caps just under $400 billion. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.
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B.I.G. Tips - Earnings Season and Top Triple Plays
Walmart (WMT) wrapped up the Q2 2020 earnings reporting period on Tuesday with a huge beat on both the top and bottom line. It was a fitting end to what turned out to be a record-setting earnings season.
As we highlighted in our Q2 Earnings Season preview in early July, analysts were rapidly increasing earnings estimates leading up to earnings season. Normally when that happens, stocks have trouble performing well during earnings season because the expectations bar has been set higher. This season, even with analyst estimates on the rise in the four weeks leading up to the start of the reporting period, companies managed to beat bottom-line EPS estimates at the highest rate in the history of our database going back to 1999.
As shown below, 76% of companies reported stronger-than-expected EPS numbers this season, which eclipsed the prior record high of 73% seen during the Q3 2006 reporting period.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Long-term Bespoke subscribers know how much we like earnings triple plays, but for those that haven’t heard of the term, we came up with it back in the mid-2000s. An earnings triple play is a company that beats EPS estimates, beats revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance all in the same quarterly earnings report. Investopedia.com is one of the best online resources for financial markets education, and they’ve actually given us credit for coining the “triple play” term on their website. We consider triple play stocks to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we are constantly finding new long-term buy opportunities from this basket of names each quarter.
This earnings season there were a massive number of earnings triple plays. We went through the list of this season's triple plays to find the ones that have the most attractive set-ups heading into the earnings off-season.
- $BBY
- $DG
- $CRM
- $DLTR
- $INTU
- $DKS
- $MDT
- $PANW
- $SJM
- $ICLK
- $OKTA
- $MRVL
- $ADSK
- $HRL
- $WDAY
- $BIG
- $COTY
- $ULTA
- $BOX
- $SPLK
- $BNS
- $TOL
- $VMW
- $BMO
- $TD
- $VEEV
- $HPE
- $DELL
- $BILI
- $BURL
- $PLCE
- $ANF
- $OLLI
- $PLAN
- $FLWS
- $VIOT
- $RY
- $HPQ
- $SOL
- $BITA
- $ATHM
- $NTAP
Monday 8.24.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 8.24.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 8.25.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 8.25.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.26.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.26.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 8.27.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 8.27.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 8.28.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 8.28.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)
Best Buy Co., Inc. $114.00
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.05 per share on revenue of $9.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.78% with revenue decreasing by 5.62%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.9% above its 200 day moving average of $81.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,266 contracts of the $115.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Dollar General Corporation $198.93
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $7.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 37.36% with revenue increasing by 11.43%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $169.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,689 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce $207.53
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $4.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.66 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.35% with revenue increasing by 22.59%. Short interest has decreased by 30.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.5% above its 200 day moving average of $172.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 35,186 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $100.30
Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, August 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $6.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.17% with revenue increasing by 8.00%. Short interest has decreased by 18.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $88.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,204 contracts of the $108.00 call expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
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Intuit Inc. $322.23
Intuit Inc. (INTU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.11 per share on revenue of $1.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,950.00% with revenue increasing by 55.94%. Short interest has decreased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.3% above its 200 day moving average of $274.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 852 contracts of the $290.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.
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DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $46.28
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.03 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 18.25% with revenue decreasing by 5.72%. Short interest has increased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $38.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,349 contracts of the $48.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.8% move in recent quarters.
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Medtronic, Inc. $98.73
Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.22 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 82.54% with revenue decreasing by 23.80%. Short interest has decreased by 10.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.0% below its 200 day moving average of $101.84. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,793 contracts of the $102.00 put expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. $269.33
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $920.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.37 to $1.40 per share on revenue of $915.00 million to $925.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.73% with revenue increasing by 14.27%. Short interest has decreased by 17.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $221.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,759 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
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J.M. Smucker Co. $112.09
J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $1.81 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.33% with revenue increasing by 1.75%. Short interest has increased by 48.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% above its 200 day moving average of $108.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters.
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iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited $8.95
iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (ICLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Monday, August 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $56.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $56.00 million to $60.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 13.99%. Short interest has increased by 92.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 63.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 91.6% above its 200 day moving average of $4.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 29.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
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| Category | 2017 Ranking | 2018 Ranking | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| DVOA Offense | 11th | 12th | -1 |
| Total Offense | 5,816 Yards | 6,648 Yards | +832 |
| Total Passing Yards | 4,366 Yards | 5,125 Yards | +759 |
| Total Rushing Yards | 1,450 Yards | 1,523 Yards | +73 |
| DVOA Defense | 32nd | 32nd | 0 |
| Total Defense Allowed | 6,049 Yards | 6,134 Yards | -85 |
| Total Passing Yards Allowed | 4,169 Yards | 4,151 Yards | -18 |
| Total Rushing Yards Allowed | 1,880 Yards | 1,983 Yards | -103 |
| Total Sacks | 22.0 | 38.0 | +16.0 |
| TurnoveTakeaway Differential | -1 | -18 | -17 |
| Penalty Flags | 104 | 117 | +13 |
| Player Arrests | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Player Fines | $110K | $151K | +$41k |
| Player | Status | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Grimes (CB) | UFA | Father time caught up with Grimes last year. Without a succession plan in place, we had no choice but to keep him for 2018. The Bucs invested heavily in the secondary by drafting both MJ Stewart and Carlton Davis in the 2nd round last year. Grimes is 36 at this point and it shows. There’s little to no value in keeping him. Verdict: Miko Grimes, go away. |
| Donovan Smith (LT) | UFA | The Bucs initially made the decision to franchise Smith before they reached a three year deal that will pay him $27M guaranteed. The LT market is unfortunately overinflated to the point that the way players are paid doesn’t correlate to the value they bring to the team. Despite his sub-par play, Donovan Smith's market should have paid him among the top players in the league. Is Nate Solder, the 2nd highest paid LT in the league much better than Donovan Smith? Not by much, IMO. You could say the same of Russell Okung. I need to see when we have a potential out with Smith without getting hit with dead money. My guess is this is in essence a 2-year deal for all intents and purposes. This re-signing, though marked up significantly at least allows us a few more options with the 5th pick, and we can only hope that Smith will improve with competent coaching, though I'm not getting my hopes up. Verdict: It’s paying a below-average LT top dollar. It’s a symptom of the market. It sucks for everyone, but mostly for Jameis. |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) | UFA | This is a tough one. Fitz is 36 at this point. With Jameis in the final year of his deal and still no sure thing, we don’t even have a developmental QB on our roster right now (sorry guys, it ain’t Ryan Griffin). I think it’s time to look younger here and let Fitz hit the open market. Which sucks, because I’m a fan of the guy all around. Verdict: Look to draft a backup QB in Round 4 or later Let Fitz walk. |
| Adam Humphries (WR) | UFA | As horrible as Jason Licht as been in the draft, he’s managed to find some valuable UDFA’s, Hump being a prime example. The Bucs are likely to cut Desean Jackson and free upwards of $10M in cap space. But even with that added space, Hump is seeking a big pay-day—one that doesn’t make sense to pay given our hefty investment in Mike Evans. I’d love to find a way to keep Humphries on board, but there’s no way given our cap constraints. Whoever gets him will be delighted. I suspect he’ll go to the Patriots because of his complexion. |
| Christopher Conte (S) | UFA | NFL League Rules prevent any team from signing players banished to the shadow realm. Some say Vance McDonald never let him return. Verdict: Duh. |
| Kwon Alexander (ILB) | UFA | How we handle Kwon Alexander is likely to be the most divisive topic of the Bucs offseason. My thoughts on Kwon: he’s the closest thing to a modern day LaVarr Arrington you could think of. LaVarr Arrington was a 3x All-Pro/Pro Bowler in Washington. He made some of the prettiest splash plays a LB could make. But if you paid attention to him in between the sexier plays, you’d see a guy who had the play recognition of a three-toed sloth and the ability to diagnose like a Doctor with a degree from the University of Phoenix Online Medical school. To me, that’s Kwon Alexander, a player who is seeking Kuechly levels of money (despite coming off a torn ACL and not being worth that to begin with). Kwon’s greatest asset is his leadership and the energy he brings to a defense. In those areas, he’s been stellar. Could we have misused him mightily under Mike Smith? Very possibly. But let’s talk about his coverage skills people perceive him to have (or lack thereof). According to PFF, in his six games played this year, he was thrown at 29 times. He allowed 27 receptions when the ball was thrown his way (93.1%). He had 8 missed tackles in the same number of games (21 missed tackles in 12 games in 2017). My point is: Kwon Alexander is defensive figurehead. He’s not a player to build a defense around. I like the idea of him going to a place like Houston. But for us? I’d let him walk with little hesitation Verdict: Love Kwon the person. Love Kwon’s leadership. Kwon himself is not a priority. Update: Kwon has signed with the 49ers. |
| Round/Pick | Player | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1, #12 Overall | Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea (DT – Washington) | I’ll admit I was among the many Bucs fans who were in the pro-Derwin camp. But when the Vea pick happened, it just made sense given our lack of DT depth, McCoy’s age, and our league low 22.0 sacks from the year before. Vea had a rough start. He began the season on the PUP list with a strained calf, then struggled with conditioning as he eased his way into the speed of the pro game. By the end of his rookie season, Vea was making plays that were jaw dropping. Manhandling double-teams, violent sacks, and blowing up run plays before they could develop. Vea was looking like a star in the making. There’s still a lot of work to be done. I sometimes feel that Vea attempts to get by on raw upper body strength rather than driving from his legs, and that’s exacerbated by his tendency to play too upright at times. But I really like the idea of him transitioning to a 0-tech in a 3-4 under Bowles. I don’t know if Vea is ever going to be a big name/big stats player, but his rookie season was impressive, to say the very least. Outlook: Very Positive |
| Round 2, #38 Overall | Ronald Jones (RB – USC) | When Ronald Jones was drafted last year, I had serious concerns about him. I wrote: “The recurring problem I saw with Jones’ tape, however, was in his inability to let his blocks develop, and the lack of patience resulted in him running into the pile before his holes opened up... t doesn’t help that the Buccaneers OL hasn’t exactly been an opportunity creator for our run game, and that makes me worry about Jones’ transition to the NFL. Pass blocking is a huge area of work for Jones…” Jones was really fucking bad, to say the very least. He mustered up a whopping 44 yards on 23 carries (1.9 average), and while I generally believe in patience with rookies, RB’s have one of the easiest transitions from the college game to the Pros. It would not shock me if Ronald Jones is on the roster bubble this year. He was that helpless. Thanks for another whopper 2nd round pick, Jason Licht. This one may not even outlast Roberto Aguayo. Outlook: Very Negative |
| Round 2, #53 Overall | MJ Stewart (DB – UNC) | Stewart was originally drafted with the intent to play safety. But with depletions to our secondary, we were forced to plug in Stewart at CB. I didn’t see a lot to be impressed with in the beginning, to be honest, but he was playing outside of comfort zone. Bucs are expected to switch him back to Safety this coming season, where we’ll be able to deliver a more proper evaluation. Outlook: Neutral |
| Round 2, #63 Overall | Carlton Davis III (CB - Auburn) | It’s not easy to come into the NFC South as a rookie and have to deal with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan from the get-go. Davis managed to only allow a respectable 400+ yards as a rookie, even with our tough schedule. Davis, like every member of our secondary struggled to get a single turnover. Once his ball skills improve, he’s got potential as a reliable starter. Outlook: Positive |
| Round 3, #94 Overall | Alex Cappa (OT – Humboldt State) | I didn’t have any particular expectations with Alex Cappa as a rookie. Coming out of a Division II school, few were expecting him to come in and make an immediate impact. With injury depletions to our OL, Cappa got a total of 103 snaps as a rookie. Hardly enough to judge him, but there were a few notable highlights where he stood out. And not in a great way. Outlook: Neutral. |
| Round 4, #117 Overall | Jordan Whitehead (S – Pitt) | Really liked what I saw of Whitehead. Due to character concerns stemming back to his time in college, Whitehead fell to us in the 4th. He’d wind up playing in all 17 games. For a guy just shy of 200 pounds, he can hit like a truck, but sometimes got overpowered and broken tackles came easy for his opposition. His instincts and nose for the ball make him a more promising member of this draft class. Outlook: Positive |
| Round 5, #144 Overall | Justin Watson (WR- Penn) | Sure, he had one catch for 5 yards as a rookie, but added value as a special teamer. With Humphries’ departure, Watson may be more involved in the passing offense next year. Outlook: Neutral |
| Round 6, #202 Overall | Jack Cichy (ILB – Wisconsin) | Cichy fell to round 6 after tearing his ACL in his senior year at Wisconsin. Unfortunately, he suffered the same fate once again as a rookie and was placed on IR early on. With the decision to re-sign Davantae Bond to the Veteran minimum, Cichy may not make it out of training camp. Outlook: Negative |
After 2015, many called for Lovie Smith’s head and got what they wanted. After 2017, many echoed the same sentiments for Dirk Koetter. But the recurring issues with the Bucs start with our front office. I've been a long-time critic of Jason Licht. The crux of my criticism of Licht boils down to my opinion that he is good at finding individual talent, but not very good at building a complete roster. It's easiest to explain this year by year. 2014, Licht went all-in on offense. Given how abysmal our offense was in 2013, this may have seemed like a logical approach, but the lack of balance in that draft continues to plague us until this day given how narrow our depth is there. From that draft, we're left with only two players: Mike Evans and Kevin Pamphile. This was the infamous year of Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins as well, two of the most disastrous free agent signings in franchise history. Alteraun Verner, viewed as a cheaper and more scheme-friendly version of Revis was also brought in at a high price tag and never properly utilized. We move onto 2015, and once again, continue to focus on offense, offense, offense. Picking Jameis #1 overall is a decision Licht deserves credit for, and trading up to take a D3 guard in Marpet is another slamdunk move he made here. Taking Kwon in the 4th round was another Licht steal, and this draft probably represented his high point. When Kwon was taken in the 4th round, it was the first time the Bucs had selected a defender in the Licht era. It took us 11 picks into his tenure to select a defender, and as the 2014-2015 classes begin to hit their stride, we’re left with a huge void on defense. While we needed a franchise LT, Donovan Smith has been hot garbage, and if the last season didn't suck out whatever faith people still had in him, I don't know what will. Oh, and in terms of Licht’s 2nd round picks, has anyone seen Austin Sefarian-Jenkins around?Has anything changed since I wrote this? Nope. Not a goddamn thing. In 2018, Jason Licht’s personnel moves bit us in the ass once again, and they’re already rearing their ugly head as free agency begins. Take a look at the teams with the most cap spend here and you’ll notice the Bucs sit near the top (we’ve since freed up $10M in cap or so since Breer wrote this Tweet).
We move onto 2016, and he finally says let's invest in our terrible defense. VH3 gets picked #11 overall after we trade down from #7, and no matter what people say, this was the right move. Licht takes a gamble on Noah Spence in Round 2, and he's been good when healthy. Then, there was the Roberto frickin’ Aguayo pick. Here we have a still incomplete roster that hasn't made a playoff since three head coaches ago, and what does he do? He trades up to take a kicker when we had an 82.1% accurate kicker in Barth.
The Licht era has emphasized heavy selection of offensive picks, and that investment has not translated into on field performance. Our late round picks (rounds 5-7) rarely make the opening day roster and are essentially wasted picks. Is this a scouting problem? I don't know, but I'd expect more roster retention than what we've had.
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